ATL: JULIAN - Post-Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

Up to 80/80 now. Will likely be TD11 soon

[Teban54]

97L spent the whole week looking worse than 98L until the latter became a TD, lol. Maybe 97L will get the name Julian after all.

[EquusStorm]

Took its time to get going but looks like it's finally going. Just got to really consolidate a low level center and maintain the decent convective organization it's had for a while now. Maybe it'll get named Julian as it races east; we all know Julian likes that sort of thing...

[Sciencerocks]

Looks better then 10!

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally
conducive for further development, only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression
later tonight or on Sunday. In a couple of days, the system is
forecast to be absorbed by a frontal system. The disturbance is
expected to drift eastward through tonight, then accelerate
northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[ouragans]

Invest 97L
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 29, 2021:

Location: 32.7°N 50.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 50 nm

[CyclonicFury]

The CSU-RAMMB site is now calling this Tropical Depression 11L. We'll have to see if NHC confirms tonight.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=al112021

[galaxy401]

Yep, confirmed TD11.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 49.7W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

[toad strangler]

This thread should be riveting.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

So what's the naming protocol if both TD10 and TD11 become tropical storms at the same time? Which one gets Julian and which one Kate?

[Hammy]

So what's the naming protocol if both TD10 and TD11 become tropical storms at the same time? Which one gets Julian and which one Kate?

Presumably the best track decisions would be made at different times, even if minutes apart. If I remember right, both Olga and Peter were named on the same advisory in 2019 but Olga was named about a half hour prior on the BT (leading to Peter's advisory coming out first as there was less to write)

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Pretty sure this is 40-45mph now.

[Subtrop]

AL, 11, 2021082912, , BEST, 0, 345N, 478W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

[Stormybajan]

AL, 11, 2021082912, , BEST, 0, 345N, 478W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

Hello Julian?

[aspen]

King Julian has arrived.

45 kt/998mb from the NHC, forecast to peak at 55 kt tomorrow before post-tropical transition.

[Sciencerocks]

[Zonacane]

By the look of it, Julian is at or near hurricane strength.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking this one could make a run for Cat 1 status. It may not get there, but it could get close.