ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

You all just need to take a step back and realize that Ida still has over 24 hours over water and still gets to travel over some of the highest OHC on the basin. She's already pushing major status. Won't take much to get to 120+ kt.

[Highteeld]

In the end Ida may not deepen or expand enough to justify an evacuation. The somewhat small wind field would not generate widespread surge, the NHC forecasts rapid weakening over land, and the rather anemic convection may not allow FL winds to mix/transfer efficiently down to the surface. I think Ida is likely to be at most a strong Cat 3 at LF, and I may be a little generous. It will be bad locally, but perhaps manageable in NOLA, even with the eastern eyewall making a direct hit. We shall see. Everyone should be prepared for the worst.

Warm cloud tops do not translate to inefficient mixing of surface winds.

This. Dorian didn't have cold tops at all, about a -68* CDO, and look what it did. It's just a sign of a warm tropopause.

[AC5230]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

I... don't think CAPE and Theta-E have anything to do with hurricanes. Severe thunderstorms, what you may be thinking of, develop a lot differently than tropical cyclones.

That being said: the right ingredients FOR a tropical cyclone: boiling-hot SSTs, low shear, high OHC, etc., are all there. RI is occurring now.

[Sciencerocks]

[Highteeld]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/8663/ryCYns.gif

Super Typhoon Ida has entered the chatroom

[ElectricStorm]

I'm gonna guess recon finds 90-95kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.

[bob rulz]

I would be very surprised if recon didn't find a cat 3 hurricane right now. Estimates of a high cat 3 peak at landfall seem very optimistic.

[bob rulz]

I'm gonna guess recon finds 90kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.

I think 90kts is the absolute minumum, 95kts is the low end of my estimate. But I do suppose it is possible that surface winds still haven't caught up to the satellite presentation.

[AC5230]

You all just need to take a step back and realize that Ida still has over 24 hours over water and still gets to travel over some of the highest OHC on the basin. She's already pushing major status. Won't take much to get to 120+ kt.

I would like to mention: I had extrapolated the 10kt/3hr intensification rate for the next 24 hours and that gives you 165kt. That's nowhere close to what will happen; it is just a calculation I'd like to note.

To re-enforce the quoted "it won't take much to 120," that extrapolation would get us to 125 in 12 hours. Again, nowhere close to what will happen but just to re-enforce the idea.

[PavelGaborik]

I'm gonna guess recon finds 90-95kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.

I'll go 85 KTS 975 MB

[Clearcloudz]

National Hurricane Center Video Update

[youtube]https://youtu.be/mk1v_njNfgI[/youtube]

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think recon finds 962 mb and 120 mph.

[Highteeld]

969/100 kt is my guess

[Highteeld]

The eye has really gained symmetry in the last few frames. This is going beastmode right now

[xironman]

There looks like there is plenty of juice flowing in from the deep tropics to Ida, I don't see any mid level dry air intrusion.

[Highteeld]

[kevin]

As I mentioned a few pages back 967mb/95kt is my guess.

[grapealcoholic]

965 mb

[Yellow Evan]

There’s a solid LG CDO and OW eye now. Colder cloud tops need to wrap around but much better than earlier.

[galaxy401]

If we’re doing recon predictions, I’ll go with 95 kts and pressure around 968.