ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

This is not the look of a storm whose chances of RI are "somewhat minimal"




CAPE and Theta-E being borderline-to-minimal, with the models having shown this for days yet still explicitly show rapid intensification should be a sign that this is not a limiting factor.

[FLpanhandle91]

969/100 kt is my guess

I think this will be pretty close.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

This is not the look of a storm whose chances of RI are "somewhat minimal"

https://i.imgur.com/IaE6Z0d.jpg

That's his opinion and he is entitled to it. Like many of us we look at trends and have our own idea's.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1431711014203047939

[ElectricStorm]

Colder cloud tops starting to wrap around the small eye. Might be starting to tap into that high OHC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Haven't seen any high rain rates.
CAPE and Theta-E is borderline to minimal thru the GOM, which the models have been correctly advertising for many days now.

Chances of RI are somewhat minimal IMHO.

This is not the look of a storm whose chances of RI are "somewhat minimal"

https://i.imgur.com/IaE6Z0d.jpg

That's his opinion and he is entitled to it. Like many of us we look at trends and have our own idea's.

And? I did not place any limitations on them expressing their opinions, I merely responded with my own.

[InfernoFlameCat]

969/100 kt is my guess

I think this will be pretty close.

Im going with that as well

[Ken711]

This will be a test for the reconstructed and improved levees around NO.

[ElectricStorm]

That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms

[Clearcloudz]

There is a airport TSA staff shortage at New Orleans airport and its causing massive backups. Possibility of flights being cancelled due to staff shortage.

[Jr0d]

I'm gonna guess recon finds 90-95kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.

I'm going to guess 105kts and 950mb. The past hour Ida has exploded in my amateur opinion.

[SconnieCane]

That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms

Ida seems like a small-to-medium sized hurricane. Larger than Andrew and Charley but much smaller than Katrina and Ike. Similar to Laura and Michael in that regard.

[La Sirena]

There is a airport TSA staff shortage at New Orleans airport and its causing massive backups. Possibility of flights being cancelled due to staff shortage.

https://i.imgur.com/on0JdKl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Ll4TGdS.jpg

That is a nightmare situation for me. I hate being stuck in airports.

[SunnyThoughts]

Im guessing 965mb 100 KT

[jdjaguar]

That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms

I noticed that as well, and also refrained from posting "pinhole"?

[Maryellen46]

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1431711014203047939

Starting to think NOLA is in big trouble.

[KimmieLa]

Genuinely surprised by the lack of cold cloud tops. She's definitely improving but it seems she hasn't undergone RI yet, let's hope that continues.

GCANE's observations suggest ML dry air is the culprit. Am I correct?

There is a big slot of ML Dry Air to the SW of Ida
Looks like the outflow is having a tough time with it.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rw2Kct95/99L1.png [/url]

Never thought I would be so happy to see dry air, at any level. Hope Ida gets her fill of it. Looks like BTR folks are staying put for this one, for the most part.

[ElectricStorm]

That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms

I noticed that as well, and also refrained from posting "pinhole"?

Yeah sometimes the eye appears as a pinhole at first but actually isn't. Not sure if that's the case here

[tolakram]

There will never be another storm like Katrina our lifetimes, so don't use this to compare, but I wonder what some of our posters today would have said watching Katrina develop?
I really hope we're not seeing an ERC and emergence of a large eye. Recon should tell us soon.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/8A_Eskv9ma4[/youtube]