ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2421 Postby Jr0d » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:55 pm

10 to 15 minutes away from the NOAA HH making it to the center, I would bet the pressure is a bit lower than the 5pm advisory says, however the NHC says Ida is rapidly strengthening.

Unfortunately the dry air to the southwest and relatively low CAPE do not appear to be inhibiting Ida.v
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2422 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

Remember this from the NHC

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week after Ida makes landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2423 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

forecast track inched further east

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this
afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and
visible satellite imagery. The eye is surrounded by a symmetric
ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen
by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western
portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level
outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and
several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle.
Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased to
T5.0 and these support increasing the initial intensity to 90 kt
for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to be in the hurricane within the next few
hours and should provide additional information on Ida's current
strength. Earlier aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the
tropical-storm-force wind field has continued to expand over the
eastern semicircle and the initial wind radii have been adjusted
outward.

The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid
intensification phase. A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm
waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow
for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday. This
is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the
NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening,
bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours. An eyewall
replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast,
so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, and it is likely to be
absorbed along a frontal zone by day 5.

Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the
long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The
track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to
continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is
steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near
the southeastern United Stated coast. After landfall, Ida's forward
motion is forecast to slow when it turns northward around the
western extent of the aforementioned ridge. By Tuesday, the cyclone
should reach the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies,
causing it to turn north-northeastward across the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys. The track guidance has nudged slightly
eastward during the first 12-24 hours, primarily due to the more
northeastward initial position, and this has required a slight
rightward adjustment in the new official forecast at those times.
The remainder of the NHC forecast is largely unchanged from before,
and lies near various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean.

Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week after Ida makes landfall.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2424 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:I don't think the core is strong enough yet for an ERC


ERC's are also very unpredictable. Sometimes they happen and sometimes they don't.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2425 Postby Highteeld » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:57 pm

Image
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2426 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:58 pm

Mark Sudduth just said he is having a hard time posting here. He's wondering if there are server issues. I'm watching his live cam
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2427 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 28, 2021 3:59 pm

toad strangler wrote:Mark Sudduth just said he is having a hard time posting here. He's wondering if there are server issues. I'm watching his live cam


No server issues, full speed. Probably jammed cell data lines.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2428 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:00 pm

MBryant wrote:
PavelGaborik wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I'm gonna guess recon finds 90-95kts/~968mb, pretty much right on the NHC intensity forecast.


I'll go 85 KTS 975 MB

Since I've been out of the loop for a couple of decades, I'll ask a question we may now have an answer for. Is there a chance that Rapid intensification messes with the extrapolated surface wind speeds taken at elevation? This would result in overestimates of surface winds because the higher winds above the surface have difficuly reaching the surface quickly. It is a thought I came up with to explain the damage to tree tops, particularly pines, coinciding with below expected surface winds during RITA.


Flood surge is wind driven and the tops of the waves get blown off in a major hurricane the white foam near the eyewall may couple more effectively. Hopefully a small eyewall area.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2429 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:00 pm


Inflow jet? FL winds seem to be inflated at that distance from the eye.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2430 Postby StormPyrate » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:00 pm

Wow NHC expects a 20 kn increase in the next 12 hours
What is the definition of RI relative to wind
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2431 Postby MBryant » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:00 pm

ronjon wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:That eye appears to be very small. I'm very interested to see how wide recon finds it. I'm usually hesitant to throw out the word pinhole but we might have one here. We'll see if recon confirms


Ida seems like a small-to-medium sized hurricane. Larger than Andrew and Charley but much smaller than Katrina and Ike. Similar to Laura and Michael in that regard.


Will likely enlarge overnight as it rides over the loop current. It has another 18-24 hrs to grow and deepen. Should truly be a monster tomorrow morning.

This does bring up an interesting point. Laura moved in about where expected. But the eye diameter expanded from a typical 20-30 miles across to about 100 miles across. Living about 40 miles from Lake Charles, it changed the event for me from a close miss to an eyewall event.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2432 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:01 pm

CDO continues to smooth out on visible satellite however still needs some work on IR. Should look much more impressive By sunrise next morning. I think this could be one of the worse case intensifying upon landfall scenarios.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2433 Postby Fancy1001 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:01 pm

I think worst-case scenario would be if Ida goes through a flawless Eyewall replacement cycle, With at least 12 more hours before landfall
Last edited by Fancy1001 on Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2434 Postby kevin » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:02 pm

StormPyrate wrote:Wow NHC expects a 20 kn increase in the next 12 hours
What is the definition of RI relative to wind


"The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period" (source = https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml)
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2435 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:02 pm

Why does it always seem like reconnaissance aircraft arrive 20-30 minutes after the NHC puts out the advisory?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2436 Postby Airboy » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:04 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Why does it always seem like reconnaissance aircraft arrive 20-30 minutes after the NHC puts out the advisory?


Was wondering the same, normal they use to time the arrivals for the advisories I think?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2437 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:04 pm

NOAA appears to be having satellite issues again.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2438 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:04 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Why does it always seem like reconnaissance aircraft arrive 20-30 minutes after the NHC puts out the advisory?


The NHC do a special advisory if something interesting is found
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2439 Postby Kazmit » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:05 pm

70 miles from the center and it's already within the hurricane-force wind field.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion Update= 5 PM =105 mph

#2440 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:05 pm

Last minute prediction before the first center pass: +/-5kt and +/-5mb of the NHC’s 5pm intensity, possibly with a double wind maximum from a partial outer eyewall.
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