ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Bombing.

[GCANE]

At least this is a little better.
IR Rapid Scan

[aspen]

Still just moderate rain rate. Nothing approaching high end.
It is struggling to warm up the core.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/V6Wgwbp6/20210828-163000-AL092021-imerg-GPM-Rain-90kts-39p4-1p0.jpg [/url]ebay image hosting

Still, I will be quite surprised if this fails to exceed 110 kt with a combo of a now closed eyewall, 30-31C SSTs, low shear, and entering the Loop Current as diurnal warming weakens.

[PavelGaborik]

Bombing.

Looks like more slow, steady intensification to me.

[GCANE]

CAPE has increased now to 3500 in the core.

[Kohlecane]

FWIW 18z GFS drops it 13 mb's at LF compared to 12z

[Category5Kaiju]

Still just moderate rain rate. Nothing approaching high end.
It is struggling to warm up the core.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/V6Wgwbp6/20210828-163000-AL092021-imerg-GPM-Rain-90kts-39p4-1p0.jpg [/url]ebay image hosting

Still, I will be quite surprised if this fails to exceed 110 kt with a combo of a now closed eyewall, 30-31C SSTs, low shear, and entering the Loop Current as diurnal warming weakens.

Me too; if it does not intensify like that then I am pretty sure extensive research will need to be done in the future to figure out why nearly every known factor was favorable but still resulted in a sluggish storm. Factor X that caused the storm to not intensify and struggle would need to be solved for. Although I am willing to bet that in the end we will be looking at a powerful Hurricane.

[Jr0d]

That dry slot may inhibit RI over the next couple of hours. It will.be interesting to see how much a pressure drop we will see between center passed.

[Kohlecane]

minus that moat to the w looking stout

[grapealcoholic]

Shear environment is supportive of a pinhole

[LARanger]

If you're lurking and reading this thread to help you decide whether to stay in a location that could feel strong effects from Hurricane Ida, please allow me to bring up a few things that might help you make up your mind.

Don't forget the utter fun of a week without power in August in Louisiana!

[Category5Kaiju]

That dry slot may inhibit RI over the next couple of hours. It will.be interesting to see how much a pressure drop we will see between center passed.

Idk, at least imho that dry spot may be extremely transient given the otherwise very solid and robust overall structure of the storm, and I just don’t know how much of an impact in the grand scheme of things that would have, doesn’t seem like it will make or break Ida

[jdjaguar]

CAPE has increased now to 3500 in the core.

shrug off that other poster nullifying your CAPE interpretations.

I have learned over the years that there is indeed a correlation between RI and CAPE values.

and I thank you for bringing that correlation to the board.

[Shell Mound]

So far FL winds and SFMR do not support MSW higher than ~80 kt in the NE quadrant. If the winds don’t “catch up” and/or mix down, surge could be reduced a bit.

[StormTracker]

That eye just refuses to clear out.

But when it does...

[KimmieLa]

Evcauation Traffic on I 10

https://i.imgur.com/9COQhvL.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/rGT38RA.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/wFFQCwC.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3uH3kHd.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gULkEXu.jpg

Near my home. These are all looking westbound.

[PavelGaborik]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

[Kohlecane]

CAPE has increased now to 3500 in the core.

shrug off that other poster nullifying your CAPE interpretations.

I have learned over the years that there is indeed a correlation between RI and CAPE values.

and I thank you for bringing that correlation to the board.

Yeah much appreciated, never correlated it with TC's doing analysis, I use it all the time for set up's when doing my Skywarn spotting

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

It's been over the loop current for maybe an hour max. It's not like it's going to bomb to Cat 4 as soon as it touches it lol

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Ida is about done with the dry air intrusion. Let the games begin