ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

965 I would guess on this pass

[CronkPSU]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

Ike?

[PavelGaborik]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

It's been over the loop current for maybe an hour max. It's not like it's going to bomb to Cat 4 as soon as it touches it lol

It's been over moderate-high oceanic heat content for significantly longer than an hour.

[PavelGaborik]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

Ike?

Gustav.

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

It's been over the loop current for maybe an hour max. It's not like it's going to bomb to Cat 4 as soon as it touches it lol

It's been over moderate-high oceanic heat content for significantly longer than an hour.

It was over a cold eddy earlier, it's only been in the deep OHC for about an hour and some change.

[Shell Mound]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

Ike?

Gustav.

Unlike Ike, Ida has never been sufficiently intense as to build up a large surge, expansion of its wind radii notwithstanding. Ike was a major hurricane for days.

[hohnywx]

For anyone still looking to leave - safe travels

 https://twitter.com/onevisionary/status/1431729157277425665

[CronkPSU]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

[supercane4867]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

Ike?

Gustav.

Gustave slammed into Cuba at peak intensity and went all down hill thereafter. No comparison here...

[bella_may]

Anyone writing this storm off is -removed-. It’s still a little right of official track but other than that it’s pretty on schedule and very likely to undergo RI tonight

[Nate-Gillson]

Anyone else beginning to get vibes from another storm from 2008?

Conditions aren't going to get much better than they are right now.

Ike?

Gustav.

I remember Gustav. Gustav never recovered from it's crossing western Cuba. Doubtful that it'll be the same for Ida.

[Category5Kaiju]

Gustav? Like as in its path?

[galaxy401]

I feel though that Ida's slow strengthening is due to the slow recovery from its Cuba crossing.

Unlike Gustav though, Ida has strengthened some. Gustav never restrengthened after the Cuba crossing.

[ThetaE]

Since Ida apparently has a 25 nautical mile eyewall already, I think the chances of an ERC are pretty reduced. Simply put, I don't see the timeline where the current eyewall contracts sufficiently that a second outer eyewall could form and try to take its place. Per the last VDM the eyewall is circular and closed, which was something I was keeping an eye out for. The NW eyewall has looked sorta weak on IR satellite all day, but not in the last hour or so.

Warmer cloudtops outside the center (the "moat") looks subsidence-related to me, nothing to do with dry environmental air. Note how the warm spot seems to strengthen in lock-step with new hot towers firing on the W and NW sides of the center. It may actually be a sign that there isn't significant banding outside the current eyewall that could lead to an eventual ERC (otherwise we'd see colder convection/cloudtops).

We'll see how much Ida can really intensify from now on. There is nothing that indicates it won't, so it'll be a real head scratcher (a good research case) if it doesn't. Winds may not reach as high as some thought thanks to the larger structure, but honestly this seems like a worse outcome for NOLA.

[kevin]

Second pass recon pressure just in: 968.7 mbar.

[StormPyrate]

Those down casting this storm are flying in the face of official forecasts
Hope you don’t regret that

[PavelGaborik]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

[grapealcoholic]

Strengthening 2mb per pass. That's RI

[Portaransas]

Looks like Ida is about done with the dry air intrusion. Let the games begin
http://tropicwatch.info/dry222108282021.jpg

“Games”? No, I get your enthusiasm for strong storms in theory, but it’s not games. That’s insulting to those in harms way.

[Category5Kaiju]

in what way?

Gustav was much more powerful early in its life, heck even entering the Gulf after leaving Cuba, it was stronger than Ida is now (you don't think it will be stronger than Cat 2 at landfall?)

Intensification forecasts that didn't materialize. Gustav at one point was forecast to be a Cat 5 landfall(or just short of it) but struggled with dry air and rebuilding it's core and made landfall just under category 3 strength.

I'm getting similar vibes with Ida, that it very well underperform her intensify forecast, perhaps significantly so.

I'm not saying that's what will transpire, but it's starting to cross my mind at this point as a possibility.

Mm, idk about that. I respectfully disagree and think Ida will intensify as conditions now are much better than what Gustav went through in 2008 in the Gulf.