ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[PavelGaborik]

https://i.imgur.com/U1drqzd.gif

The afternoon wobble seems to be correcting itself.

I'd argue I see a more northerly component over the last 2 frames though to be fair.

She's definitely still a tad E of the track.

[jcera]

Towers going off in all 4 quadrants in the last 5 minutes.

[jaxfladude]

http://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1431794739490312194?s=20

Not good news for the more populated areas in and around New Orleans and points east of MS/AL/Fl Pan

[Blown Away]

There is @25+ miles marshy/bayou before you get to Houma... It’s gotta take a little sting out of a system??

[supercane4867]

Expect intensification right up until landfall unless some miracle occurs.

[abajan]

Dead calm evening here in Pass Christian. Only thing moving outside are the bugs. Convection is really concentrated around Ida's eye. Looks to be intensifying at a good clip. Should be Cat-3 by morning.....MGC

If by "morning" you mean daybreak, I think it's going to be Cat 3 well before that.

[MGC]

Thinking Ida will landfall between Port Fourchon and Grand Isle as a strong Cat-3. Extensive surge and wind damage in Jefferson Parish. Just my opinion and not an official forecast.....MGC

[johngaltfla]

https://i.imgur.com/U1drqzd.gif

There's the poleward shift that many of us were talking about. Ida is looking way too impressive with a solid chance of intensifying further over the next 6-12 hours.

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/U1drqzd.gif

4 Roses kicking in, but that’s kind of ****ed up.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is @25+ miles marshy/bayou before you get to Houma... It’s gotta take a little sting out of a system??

No. The storm will still draw energy from the bayou and lakes

[RL3AO]

IR image + OHC overlay. Can also see how much that wobble has put the eye east of the track.

[wx98]

For those who are asking when is the next mission, AF plane departs at 2:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 29/0830Z,1130Z,1430Z
B. AFXXX 1209A IDA
C. 29/0615Z
D. 27.2N 89.2W
E. 29/0800Z TO 29/1430Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

What happened to the 3 hour fixes???

The aborted mission was supposed to last til after 5z and that would’ve been the 3 hours fixes.

[chaser1]

NHC might upgrade to 100 kts with that presentation…

Dvorak Technique would agree

I would go with 100 Kts / 115mph for the 11PM update.

Agreed. Minus any degradation of satellite presentation, I just don't see how NHC goes any less. Without a plane in there, it would shocking enough for many in the path to go to sleep thinking they may only have to face a Cat 2.... just to potentially wake up to staring down the barrel of a Cat 4 (or worse?). 115 may be conservative but not unreasonable.

[vxskaxv]

https://img.tdworld.com/files/base/ebm/tdworld/image/2019/03/tdworld_5303_are_you_not_entertained_w_text_720x396.png?auto=format&fit=crop&h=432&w=768

As a first responder rescuing people during Hurricane Harvey with a 3 person jet ski as boats were getting toppled by raging flood waters….NO. I was in the process of carrying 9 people who were hanging onto my jetski sides in 19ft flood rapids in a bayou for extreme dear life as in the corner of my eye we spotted a child screaming for help as he floated swiftly by us. The waters were so intense I had to make the ultimate decision to continue saving the 9 people vs risking their lives while trying to catch the child.

His body was found next morning tangled in a tree top that stopped the boy from further washing down stream.

Not entertaining at all!!!

[Category5Kaiju]

Whenever Ida makes landfall, how sure can we be that it'll stop intensifying by then? Isn't the area where landfall is expected to occur all wet and swampy, which theoretically would not be very detrimental for this kind of storm?

[TunaNugget]

There is @25+ miles marshy/bayou before you get to Houma... It’s gotta take a little sting out of a system??

Used to live there. It's just barely land at all. It's no different than the Florida Everglades, which storms can intensify over.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Whenever Ida makes landfall, how sure can we be that it'll stop intensifying by then? Isn't the area where landfall is expected to occur all wet and swampy, which theoretically would not be very detrimental for this kind of storm?

It wont strengthen but it will ever slightly weaken

It will still draw energy from the Bayou and wont really fall apart till that eye is over 100% land

[johngaltfla]

There is @25+ miles marshy/bayou before you get to Houma... It’s gotta take a little sting out of a system??

Keep in mind we've seen storms intensify or maintain intensity moving over the Everglades. Those marshes and bayous won't impact the storm that much, IMHO.

[SunnyThoughts]

Im hearing rumors that TEAL72 is in the air...can anyone confirm?

[Kazmit]

Whenever Ida makes landfall, how sure can we be that it'll stop intensifying by then? Isn't the area where landfall is expected to occur all wet and swampy, which theoretically would not be very detrimental for this kind of storm?

It wont strengthen but it will ever slightly weaken

It will still draw energy from the Bayou and wont really fall apart till that eye is over 100% land

Wetlands are basically comparable to shallow shelf water. Stalling over them would weaken the system but not when it's moving at a good clip like Ida is.