ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go. AF plane decends to operational altitude.

[supercane4867]

Latest discussion from NWS New Orleans:

Conditions are expected to deteriorate
late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Once sustained
tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down
and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the
possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for
some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be
without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain
caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this
level and if it doesn`t happen then we should all count our
blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1
in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE; 2 are in a very
flood prone area, LEAVE, 3 are uncomfortable and have trees around
your house, LEAVE. Do not play around and say "I`ve been through
Andrew/Camille/Katrina/Betsy" all storms are different. /CAB/

[tailgater]

Current NHC Track zoomed in to show areas that will be impacted. If I'm in New Orleans I'm biting my nails.

https://i.imgur.com/N7stIa7.jpg

Frak me, I can't "see my house from here" because the line covers it up.

Me too, I had to go look outside to see it,; )

[Beef Stew]

Shouldn’t be too much time left until we get our first center pass. Looking like it will be a NW to SE fly through.

And while we’re all at it: I’ll go ahead and guess recon finds Ida packing winds of 100 kts with pressure around 957 mb, with the latter falling like a rock and the former starting to pick up to match.

[Clearcloudz]

NWS New Orleans Forecast Discussion tonight

They not playing around and are actually telling everyone to leave if you are able to.

[KimmieLa]

I have the center at 27.1N 88.0W - it seems to have moved left a bit this evening. I'd go with 95 kt for the intensity (pressure 958 mb) at the advisory while we wait for Recon.

It was def moving wnw there for a bit.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[wx98]

Since they won’t get the NE quad the first time, I’m not expecting the winds to be overly strong. Probably 90-100 kt at the most. Pressure is probably 952 mbar.

[ElectricStorm]

ADT keeps going up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 951.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.4

[tolakram]

saved loop

[PavelGaborik]

Since they won’t get the NE quad the first time, I’m not expecting the winds to be overly strong. Probably 90-100 kt at the most. Pressure is probably 952 mbar.

100 KTS would be pretty significant considering the last plane left with winds barely supporting 85 KTS.

[Jag95]

<edit>I'll go with 105 kts, 952 mbs. Just had the outermost band blow through here a few minutes ago. Lasted about 10 minutes.

[Clearcloudz]

I'm seeing 4 metovortices with one in each quadrant. Strongest winds are in these...

[Beef Stew]

While it’s easy to get caught up with the MSW and MSLP, what’s also going to be very telling about this recon mission is seeing just how large that hurricane-force wind swath is. If trends continue from earlier… it doesn’t bode well for storm surge inundation around SE LA, including NOLA proper, to say the least…

[PavelGaborik]

I'm seeing 4 metovortices with one in each quadrant. Strongest winds are in these...

https://i.imgur.com/uE0kr51.jpg

Clear sign of a system that is ramping up in a big way from my experience.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye temp in the positives on ADT

[Supersoaker]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Thank you all for your contributions. Is Ida still on track for a morning landfall?

[supercane4867]

Wind field may have expanded further. FL winds already approaching hurricane strength in the outer fringes of the CDO

[tolakram]

saved loop