ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

Extrap 954, FL winds 110 kt. We have a Cat 3.

[CrazyC83]

Since the NE quad has not been sampled, I would at least go with 100 kt here. Pressure looks to be about 954.

I think we might see a Tropical Cyclone Update. A special advisory would not be needed as this was already forecasted.

[MarioProtVI]

Loop Current OHC did its work…and this is only the SE side. Definitely a major now especially considering what’s probably in the NE quad

[Kazmit]

Probably enough to support 100kts, but winds are likely even higher in the NE quadrant.

[supercane4867]

Winds in the NE eyewall likely exceed 100kts now. We will see what next pass find.

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431842156524699653

[LSU2001]

954 mb pressure extrapolated. Still gonna wait for the VDM but that is a pretty good fall since the last mission.
Tim

[Hypercane_Kyle]

954mb. Winds 94 knots but that's in the SE quad. NE quad is likely at major hurricane status.

EDIT: Funny to see six independent posts coming to the same conclusion, lol.

[ColdMiser123]

954 mb extrap, appears the pressure has dropped around ~10-12 mb in about 4 hours, so the ~2-3 mb/hr rate looks to have continued.

110 kt FL wind in the SE quad. Likely even higher in the NE quad. Winds finally catching up, and should support a Cat 3 at 2 am.

[tolakram]

Small wobble

[Teban54]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last eye pass from the previous recon was at 00:32Z with a pressure of 967 mb. This pass has 954 mb at 04:43Z. That's a deepening rate of 3.10 mb/hr.

[tolakram]

So far pressure is almost exactly as the most recent run of the HWRF predicted. HWRF has been all over the place, but most recent run in the shorter time frame seems to be accurate.

[jasons2k]

If I lived south of I-10/I-12 I would get out while I could. Time is running out. I am very worried about levee breaches.

[tolakram]

[AZRainman]

Wow, Cat IV at landfall....stay safe!

[Stormybajan]

Looks like major hurricane status has been achieved but that pressure of 954 is impressive! Thats rough 3mb/hour who knows whats in the NE quadrant maybe 120?

[Craters]

Current NHC Track zoomed in to show areas that will be impacted. If I'm in New Orleans I'm biting my nails.

https://i.imgur.com/N7stIa7.jpg

Frak me, I can't "see my house from here" because the line covers it up.

Me too, I had to go look outside to see it,; )

Did you look up to see if you could see the line, Tailgater?

[tarheelprogrammer]

NE quad is prob in the 115 knot range

[shah83]

So far pressure is almost exactly as the most recent run of the HWRF predicted. HWRF has been all over the place, but most recent run in the shorter time frame seems to be accurate.

That's the 18z HWRF. the 00z HWRF is second guessing itself...

[Kazmit]

Going to bed now. If current deepening rates continue, I’ll wake up to a ~935 mb cat 4.