ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

It could have anywhere from 12 to 24 hours to landfall, depends on exactly where she makes landfall, where and when she starts slowing down. Because all models do show her slowing down, most do it right after landfall, however what happens if she slows down before landfall, what effect will that have on her. We are here at the mercy of Mother Nature and she will do what she wants when she wants.

Nowhere near 24 hours left. 12-15 at the most til landfall

[Blinhart]

Not enough time for Ida to reach cat 5 imo. It would have to intensify at a similar rate to Wilma to reach cat 5 at this point. Not like it really matters for the people of SE Louisiana though the difference between a high end cat 4 and a low end cat 5 is negligible in terms of impacts.

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

I think you can make a pretty educated guess at this point.

No you can't, we don't know if she has finally caught up to the pressure drops or not, if she has she could have winds up around 125 - 140 mph, then it wouldn't take that much more for her to get up to Cat 5.

[NDG]

A 12 mb drop in a little over 4 hours is impressive, and it still has at least 13 hours before landfall.

[Highteeld]

Not a very useful dropsonde for the SE eyewall

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1431846970532909058

[LARanger]

Wow, Cat IV at landfall....stay safe!

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLX2PJ-gKgvtCN5BkV7Sn4sXooLsihChtsPysCOmCcOhwYW0XB0amZ22MSh5c9zW4QQk4krsF2IT9gXxDtkukg5acCvTIXcQSmqR2mv5LWLm8KgCnIGf99SzWtk1UehcK9eLRa1tuwSdqAcUPw4YbY2i=w923-h792-no?authuser=0

I love graphics like that . . . Skeetobite Weather used to be my source when it was active. Where's that one from?

[Texashawk]

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

It is nowhere near small. On the large side right now.

[USTropics]

Wow, Cat IV at landfall....stay safe!

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/AM-JKLX2PJ-gKgvtCN5BkV7Sn4sXooLsihChtsPysCOmCcOhwYW0XB0amZ22MSh5c9zW4QQk4krsF2IT9gXxDtkukg5acCvTIXcQSmqR2mv5LWLm8KgCnIGf99SzWtk1UehcK9eLRa1tuwSdqAcUPw4YbY2i=w923-h792-no?authuser=0

I love graphics like that . . . Skeetobite Weather used to be my source when it was active. Where's that one from?

It's part of the Navy Research Laboratory products, can be found here for all active systems - https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc21/ATL/09L.IDA/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html

[Blinhart]

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Because she is considered a small system in comparison to most other systems,

[CronkPSU]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=07&length=24

i assume this is some kind of glitch as to why the colors changed so quickly and not indicative of a sudden weakening?

[wx98]

We don't know the current wind strength of her, so we can't said how hard it will be for her to get to Cat 5 or not.

I think you can make a pretty educated guess at this point.

No you can't, we don't know if she has finally caught up to the pressure drops or not, if she has she could have winds up around 125 - 140 mph, then it wouldn't take that much more for her to get up to Cat 5.

Typical winds for this pressure would be 120-125 mph. Assuming winds on the NE side are 10–15 mph stronger than SE side then yes you can make a pretty good guess.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye is very quickly warming.

[ElectricStorm]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 947.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1431849263575838721

[wx98]

It would probably need to drop about 30mb to get to cat5. If it holds its rate, it could get there in about 10 hours, and has about 12 to go. Not very likely, but not impossible.

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Compared to Katrina it is MUCH smaller.

[ronyan]

Didn't notice the landfall date before now.

[Kingarabian]

Satellite eye temp estimate is near +3.0C. The warmer the eye from here on out the stronger Ida will be. If it gets to +18C it will likely be a Cat.5. Looks like cloud tops are as cold as they're going to get here.

[supercane4867]

ADT is pretty spot-on so far. Won’t be surprised if recon finds similar wind speeds in the NE eyewall

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 947.0mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Texashawk]

I don't worry about mb as much as wind speed when a system is as small as this one is, I know I should, however for categorizing a Hurricane it is wind not mb.

The main circulation alone is the size of the entire state of Louisiana, and the broad circulation is roughly the size of Texas. I'm just curious how you consider Ida 'small'.

Because she is considered a small system in comparison to most other systems,

By what standard? No, she's not a Gilbert or an Allen, but to say Ida's small in comparison to most other systems... I'm no expert, but she's at least as large as Harvey or Laura, and nobody called those storms 'small'.