ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

6.2 6.5 6.5
13.49 -69.75 EYE

[Sanibel]

Appears to be carving out a sharper eye...Which means only one thing...Post Loop Current strengthening...

Intensification wobbles combined with stair stepping in to predicted track...Near miss New Orleans...Ridge firm... (in my opinion)


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[HDGator]

Just a reminder though. She is about to reach an area of water that is warmer than even the Gulf Loop

https://twitter.com/SouthernShortys/status/1431137911206989845?s=20

Note that water near the coast has lower OHC despite higher surface temperatures. Likely won't be too much of an issue for the fast-moving Ida, but when it struggled to RI earlier in the day, some people pointed to the low OHC (despite high SSTs) as one possible cause.

How fast is she moving, its something I keep meaning to check on, but with prepping , and LITERALLY I slipped off a wet ladder today and got hit in the head by a 2x4... I keep forgetting to check!

She's moving NW at 15mph per the 1 am CDT NHC update.
The NHC forecast has her slowing down as the center gets closer to you (not a good thing, I know).
I've had the radar on screen with the NHC forecast tracks and she just hit her forecast point for 06z almost dead on from the 5pm forecast yesterday.

If I were you, I'd focus on the NHC forecast and also look at your local NWS forecast discussions for more details on your area.

As a lifelong resident of South FL (until last year), I've been through the stress too many times to count. You're ahead of the game on preps and knowledge; get some rest before tomorrow.

[TallahasseeMan]

Terrifying that this thing has at least another 9-10 hours over water and HWRF/HMON have intensification into landfall

[Keldeo1997]

133KT FL 943MB

[Highteeld]

This really is pulling a Michael (perhaps worse)

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 945.5 mb (27.92 inHg)
Sorry even Extrap. Sfc. Press: 943.6 mb (27.87 inHg......

[Teban54]

133KT FL 943MB

12mb drop between two recon passes??? That's Iota level.

[Highteeld]

cat 4

[wx98]

HOLY S#!%%%

This is crazy.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow. That's a nearly 10mb drop between passes.

~110 knot SFMR unflagged, but was in excess of 115 knots flagged.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... b&latest=1

[TallahasseeMan]

Remembering the poster from earlier today who was very confident Ida was gonna bust low...

[supercane4867]

A disaster of epic proportions is quietly brewing overnight. The island of Grand Isle may not exist much longer

[ElectricStorm]

Holy freaking crap this thing is bombing. +13C eye temp on ADT.

[skyline385]

110 kt SFMR, and here I had predicted 105 kt for the pass. Also that pressure drop is insane...

[kevin]

133 FL winds . That supports a 120kt/943mb cat 4. And to think this has another 10 hours above water. Hopefully intensification stops soon, but tbh I wouldn't be surprised if this one comes close to that dreaded fifth category.

[aperson]

Bunch of eyewall lightning just showed up too. I don't think explosive intensification is done yet.

[Highteeld]

With the 133 kt FL winds, the 115 SFMR, despite being flagged, is probably correct.

[galaxy401]

Did the Pressure seriously just drop 10 mb in only one hour?! Looks like it's already a Cat 4 too...

[Texashawk]

So... anybody leaving the forums tonight, or do you have better things to do with your Saturday night than watch meteorological history unfold?