ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[skyline385]

Have there been any recent MW passes which suggest an incoming EWRC? Cause this is not going to stop otherwise...

[grapealcoholic]

It's gonna bottom out

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 055020 UTC
Lat : 27:33:35 N Lon : 88:45:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 940.6mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kohlecane]

whoa!! Im going to sleep now! that just about did it for me

[wx98]

With the 133 kt FL winds, the 115 SFMR, despite being flagged, is probably correct.

I was thinking that as well.

[supercane4867]

Imaging folks getting caught off guard on a Sunday morning...literally can't get any worse than this

[Teban54]

So, the last time there was a >10mb pressure drop between two recon passes was Iota.

The last time recon showed Cat 4 intensity 20 minutes after NHC puts out a Cat 3 advisory was Delta. Current data suggests Ida might be at 115 kts now.

You do NOT want a mashup of Delta and Iota level intensifications under any circumstances.

[ncskywarn]

133KT FL 943MB

12mb drop between two recon passes??? That's Iota level.

That equates to about a 138 miles per hour the surface Which the NHC would round off to 140 if they pull the trigger.

[ElectricStorm]

This is going to end up being the storm that future storms taking a similar path are going to be compared to for years to come if this continues. 4 Cat 5's have hit the US. There may be a chance this becomes the 5th

[grapealcoholic]

Start pulling up the MPI maps

[Hypercane_Kyle]

133KT FL 943MB

12mb drop between two recon passes??? That's Iota level.

I
That equates to about a 138 miles per hour the surface Which the NHC would round off to 140 if they pull the trigger.

No, those are flight level winds. Actual winds look to be around 110-115 knots.

EDIT: Misread 133 knot FL as 133 mph FL. Pretty sure that's a good sign I need to go to bed.

[PavelGaborik]

Holy poop that pass is absurd.

[TallahasseeMan]

Let's see what the dropsonde measures, likely less than a 10mb drop but still very likely to be explosive.

[KimmieLa]

So... anybody leaving the forums tonight, or do you have better things to do with your Saturday night than watch meteorological history unfold?

Well, I was going to bed to get much needed rest before the storm, but this is something to see. And, honestly, I wish I hadn't, Instead of sleep, I may spend that time in prayer. Deep sigh.

[NevadaFan18]

Special advisory incoming

[CrazyC83]

Would they put a special advisory out 2 hours before the scheduled? But I agree, that supports 115 kt.

[wx98]

12mb drop between two recon passes??? That's Iota level.

I
That equates to about a 138 miles per hour the surface Which the NHC would round off to 140 if they pull the trigger.

No, those are flight level winds. Actual winds look to be around 110-115 knots.

EDIT: Misread 133 knot FL as 133 mph FL. Pretty sure that's a good sign I need to go to bed.

Blending those 2 would get roughly 130 mph, which is Cat 4.

[ElectricStorm]

Might have to pull an all nighter for this one. I've never done that for a TC but this is a special case

[jcera]

And it still hasn't cleared out the eye

[PavelGaborik]

So... anybody leaving the forums tonight, or do you have better things to do with your Saturday night than watch meteorological history unfold?

Mixing beer and energy drinks to keep me going as I type this (3:28 Atlantic time)