ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3341 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:51 am

Ida's central pressure has fallen 6 millibars during the past hour.

Even Stewart is shocked at the rate of deepening lol
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3342 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:52 am

Raw T's up to 6.8 :eek:
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3343 Postby skyline385 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:52 am

skyline385 wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:With the 133 kt FL winds, the 115 SFMR, despite being flagged, is probably correct.


I was thinking that as well.


The NHC might decide that its correct looking at the FL winds, lets see what their update brings.


NHC actually went with 115 kt SFMR for the update...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3344 Postby TallahasseeMan » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:53 am

Going by NHC advisories, Ida made the jump from CAT 3 to Cat 4 in about an hour...
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3345 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:53 am

Getting that buzz saw look.
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kevin
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3346 Postby kevin » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:53 am

Raw Ts up to 6.8, if that holds for CI later today that would mean ADT thinks 135kt is definitely on the table.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3347 Postby Comradez » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:54 am

What's weird is, the eye is looking a little ragged, and yet the cold convection around the eyewall is looking more vicious than ever. Could that just be some overshooting cloudtops from the eyewall obscuring the true eye on infrared satellite?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3348 Postby KyleEverett » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:55 am

Comradez wrote:What's weird is, the eye is looking a little ragged, and yet the cold convection around the eyewall is looking more vicious than ever. Could that just be some overshooting cloudtops from the eyewall obscuring the true eye on infrared satellite?


Indeed. You'll often see that with intensifying hurricanes.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3349 Postby LARanger » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:55 am

If she keeps this up I am going to reconsider my location. I may be a fair bit inland but the NHC line is drawn onto my roof.

As for aging like fine milk, at least folks were in august company. The NHC kept it at 4 despite the models.

Image
Last edited by LARanger on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3350 Postby Teban54 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:56 am

Comradez wrote:What's weird is, the eye is looking a little ragged, and yet the cold convection around the eyewall is looking more vicious than ever. Could that just be some overshooting cloudtops from the eyewall obscuring the true eye on infrared satellite?

To my amateur eyes, the eye seems slightly tilted and is being rotated to the NE now.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3351 Postby caneseddy » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:56 am

Hopefully everyone has evacuated from Grand Isle, Port Fouchon, Golden Meadow, Galliano, and Cut Off. I shudder how those areas will look like after this passes..
Last edited by caneseddy on Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3352 Postby fendie » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:57 am

Saved radar loop

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3353 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:57 am

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3354 Postby drewschmaltz » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:58 am

Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?
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I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3355 Postby wx98 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:58 am

skyline385 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
wx98 wrote:
I was thinking that as well.


The NHC might decide that its correct looking at the FL winds, lets see what their update brings.


NHC actually went with 115 kt SFMR for the update...


At this rate, it was probably necessary to keep up with the intensification rate while waiting for the next plane.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3356 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:59 am

Comradez wrote:What's weird is, the eye is looking a little ragged, and yet the cold convection around the eyewall is looking more vicious than ever. Could that just be some overshooting cloudtops from the eyewall obscuring the true eye on infrared satellite?


There are multiple mesovortices rotating within the eyewall's diameter (common feature for intense tropical systems), which creates the illusion the center is ragged or elongated. This is far from the case though, and if we look underneath the upper-levels (i.e., using radar imagery) we can see these mesovortices features. Impressive, even with radar attenuation.

Image
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3357 Postby wx98 » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:59 am

TallahasseeMan wrote:Going by NHC advisories, Ida made the jump from CAT 3 to Cat 4 in about an hour...

Isn’t this like a Charley-level explosion?
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3358 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:59 am

When's the next recon? Right now if it's 3 hours, they're going to miss a lot.
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3359 Postby Stormgodess » Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:00 am

HDGator wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
Teban54 wrote:Note that water near the coast has lower OHC despite higher surface temperatures. Likely won't be too much of an issue for the fast-moving Ida, but when it struggled to RI earlier in the day, some people pointed to the low OHC (despite high SSTs) as one possible cause.


How fast is she moving, its something I keep meaning to check on, but with prepping , and LITERALLY I slipped off a wet ladder today and got hit in the head by a 2x4... I keep forgetting to check! :double: :D

She's moving NW at 15mph per the 1 am CDT NHC update.
The NHC forecast has her slowing down as the center gets closer to you (not a good thing, I know).
I've had the radar on screen with the NHC forecast tracks and she just hit her forecast point for 06z almost dead on from the 5pm forecast yesterday.

If I were you, I'd focus on the NHC forecast and also look at your local NWS forecast discussions for more details on your area.

As a lifelong resident of South FL (until last year), I've been through the stress too many times to count. You're ahead of the game on preps and knowledge; get some rest before tomorrow.



Yall really need a hug emoji... I'm a hugger.

Thank you. Thank you all actually. *hugs*
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Re: ATL: IDA - Hurricane - Discussion

#3360 Postby kevin » Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:01 am

drewschmaltz wrote:Anyone familiar with LA? Forecasted landfall vs Katrina. How is it potentially different (for better or worse)?


Due to the long time that Katrina sustained MH winds its storm surge was pretty much unparalleled with anything else in the history of the Atlantic so it's near-impossible for any other storm to reach those values. However, don't get me wrong when the only storm you can somewhat compare values to is Katrina then you know that something bad is gonna happen. Many areas along the coast will probably see 10 - 15 ft surge. This will probably have stronger LF winds than Katrina.
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