ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[JaxGator]

For scale looking east, Ida's rainbands extend all the way to Crawfordville Florida and Apalachicola National Forest (and showers extending all the way down to Naples) bringing the threat of waterspouts on the coast. That's a huge distance. In Valdosta, low clouds are racing to the north. However, not sure if they are from Ida's outflow or associated with a tropical wave that has brought tropical downpours and thunderstorms to North Florida and South Georgia for the past few days. Prayers for everyone in the hurricane's path!

[skyline385]

Recon's on the way I'm thinking they find around 120-125kts/~944mb

Well looks like recon's turning around yet again which is unfortunate so this prediction is no longer valid.

Since there's no recon, there's no use in me staying up any longer. I'm pretty dang terrified of what this thing might look like when I wake up...

Its a landfalling major aiming for NOLA, I hope they can get something up in the air soon...

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

So we are without recon for how long then? Thats not good news for a landfalling Cat 4/5

It’s not but then what can you tell people with recon that you haven’t already told them? If they haven’t prepared or evacuated by now another update won’t make a difference. They’ve already declared this is a life-threatening storm as many ways as they can.

That being said, I’m not happy we’re missing recon because I just want to know what’s happening in this storm, which seems to be by the minute changes. We may now very well miss verification of the strongest point in its history.

[drewschmaltz]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

So we are without recon for how long then? Thats not good news for a landfalling Cat 4/5

What important functions does recon provide at this stage?

[HurricaneIrma]

Possible cat.5

Sent from my SM-A215U using Tapatalk

[cstrunk]

It's very disappointing about the amount of issues the recon planes consistently have. With the amount of money the government blows, you'd think a little more could be funneled into this program which has significant impact on hurricane forecasting and research.

[Airboy]

Where are you seeing the recon turned back? What I see it still on it's way, but maybe delayed data.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Is there any other way to confirm intensity now without recon?

[PavelGaborik]

Honestly, human error aside, the fact that we have a category 4 rapidly intensifying less than 12 hours away from landfall with no planes set to investigate now for several hours is simply inexcusable to me.

Edit : Looks like another plane is currently en route to try to fix this mess.

[JaxGator]

I've read that Joe Bastardi is riding out the storm in Baton Rouge via his twitter. Him, Mark Sudduth and Josh Morgerman riding out Ida is something. All we need is to add Jim Cantore to the list. Each frame on IR, night visible and Dvorak is just unreal.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Tracking for Air Force 302 that was on the way to Ida:

https://planefinder.net/data/aircraft/96-5302
https://www.radarbox.com/data/registration/96-5302
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/965302

It has turned around and headed back.

[LARanger]

what can you tell people with recon that you haven’t already told them? If they haven’t prepared or evacuated by now another update won’t make a difference.

Actually, it's making or would make a big difference for me right now.

[Craters]

Looks like TEAL73 is turning around... must be having issues which feels much too common with this storm.

When is next recon supposed to depart?

So we are without recon for how long then? Thats not good news for a landfalling Cat 4/5

What important functions does recon provide at this stage?

I would say that it provides a range of in situ data for a very rare (although not so rare, recently) category of hurricane. I would say further that it's critically important to extend collection of such data for as long as possible throughout the evolution of such storms in order to understand the processes that generate them and that they, in turn, create.

[Cyclenall]

A reminder of just how ludicrous a hot eddy can boost a TC, crazy. I checked Wikipedia and I think the opening line is very astute:

"Hurricane Ida is an explosively intensifying tropical cyclone that is currently threatening the Gulf Coast of the United States."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ida

What are the chances someone runs into that article without knowing there is an active hurricane by this name?

With the disturbing news about the latest recon heading back to base, here is a scary thought: would if the last recon that was emergency liftoff never came? I don't think there could be a bigger debacle than that.

[Hammy]

So when's the next recon now? Or is that it now through landfall?

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/gusalaka/status/1431882810231558145

[Craters]

It's very disappointing about the amount of issues the recon planes consistently have. With the amount of money the government blows, you'd think a little more could be funneled into this program which has significant impact on hurricane forecasting and research.

If I recall correctly, there was a serious movement in congress just a few years ago to kill the entire recon program. "Satellites can do the job more cheaply and effectively." A typical bureaucratic argument, very far-removed from reality.

[cstrunk]

https://twitter.com/weatherplanes/statu ... 32355?s=19

Is this a scrambled recon mission?

[PavelGaborik]

It's very disappointing about the amount of issues the recon planes consistently have. With the amount of money the government blows, you'd think a little more could be funneled into this program which has significant impact on hurricane forecasting and research.

If I recall correctly, there was a serious movement in congress just a few years ago to kill the entire recon program. "Satellites can do the job more cheaply and effectively." A typical bureaucratic argument, very far-removed from reality.

Not to turn things Political but can you provide a source for this? This is something that I'd genuinely like to read about.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/1431885847255789568