ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Randy_SELAwxwrn/status/1431916365921898499

[kevin]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/881474908444590121/20210829.0751.gw1.89hbt.09L.IDA.115kts.949mb.27.6N.88.7W.91pc.jpg

That has to be one of the most ominous hurricane pictures I've seen.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1431915741884911621

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Deleted post about extrapolated sonde pressure because it is likely a bad sonde.

[MBryant]

This is the time every wobble takes on exaggerated meaning. I've been safely west for a while now, but any drift West is disconcerting to me while any drift East is disconcerting to New Orleans. Could you pick a worse possible time (overnight) for Extra Rapid Intensification? There really is no time to evacuate safely if you haven't already done it or are a night owl. NO-ONE wants to be caught out in a traffic jam in the middle of a major hurricane.

[KBBOCA]

Catching up on twitter after a brief nap... saw this. Apologies if already posted.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1431872350732042246

[kevin]

NOAA3 found hurricane level FL winds (so 72+ kt with a 0.9 reduction factor) up to 80 miles away from the center in the NE quadrant.

[dexterlabio]

Im getting a vibe that there would be no more recon flight when Ida has cleared the eye. 4 to 6 hours before landfall, I think there is still ample time left for a fully clear eye.

[ChrisH-UK]

Latest storm surge inundation forecast from CERA

Source - https://cera.coastalrisk.live/s/3e0f

[Highteeld]

145 mph per nhc

[Texashawk]

https://twitter.com/Randy_SELAwxwrn/status/1431916365921898499

This is already 3 feet higher than Katrina's peak surge at this location.

[kevin]

Up to 125 knots .

WTNT64 KNHC 290951
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h).

A NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported
a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 89.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Papin

[Highteeld]

Eye trying to clear again... let's see if it can

[GCANE]

936mb
Very dry at 700mb
Usually an early indication an EWRC maybe starting soon.


how to check if my keyboard is working

[jlauderdal]

145 mph per nhc

Those posts from yesterday downcasting the system didn't age well.

[Airboy]

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
949mb (28.03 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 25.4°C (78°F) 75° (from the ENE) 103 knots (119 mph)
925mb 229m (751 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 90° (from the E) 142 knots (163 mph)
850mb 972m (3,189 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 21.9°C (71°F) 125° (from the SE) 109 knots (125 mph)
700mb 2,651m (8,698 ft) 15.4°C (59.7°F) 15.2°C (59°F) 150° (from the SSE) 120 knots (138 mph)

[Highteeld]

[weeniepatrol]

[Shell Mound]

936mb
Very dry at 700mb
Usually an early indication an EWRC maybe starting soon.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwVgt4wL/recon-NOAA3-WB09-A-IDA-dropsonde7-20210829-0917.png [/url]how to check if my keyboard is working

NEXRAD indicates that convection in the inner core is still strengthening and the eye is contracting, so I would expect some further intensification till LF.

[aspen]

Oh my god this has bombed out way more than I could’ve expected…this is awful for Louisiana. Ida could possibly be up to 135 kt at landfall.