ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormgodess]

https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/1431915741884911621?s=20

Just heard 100mph sustained from Livingston parish to Hammond Gusts over 110mph

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1431919921961787395





And mods sorry for the double post earlier I keep getting errors when I reply ... so sorry

[Airboy]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 9:55Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Second flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 9:16:58Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28.11N 89.17W
B. Center Fix Location: 140 statute miles (225 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,747m (9,012ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 952mb (28.12 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 105kts (120.8mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE/SSE (146°) of center fix at 9:13:48Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 237° at 116kts (From the WSW at 133.5mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE/SSE (146°) of center fix at 9:13:36Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 123kts (141.5mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 9:26:23Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 157° at 134kts (From the SSE at 154.2mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 9:27:04Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.25 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 134kts (~ 154.2mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) from the flight level center at 9:27:04Z

[PavelGaborik]

936mb
Very dry at 700mb
Usually an early indication an EWRC maybe starting soon.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwVgt4wL/recon-NOAA3-WB09-A-IDA-dropsonde7-20210829-0917.png [/url]how to check if my keyboard is working

NEXRAD indicates that convection in the inner core is still strengthening and the eye is contracting, so I would expect some further intensification till LF.

There are/were definite signs of an EWRC but the inner eyewall has continuously merged with the outer banding.

I don't think there's enough time for Ida to complete an EWRC any longer, though it's feasible one could finally begin before landfall.

[jlauderdal]

936mb
Very dry at 700mb
Usually an early indication an EWRC maybe starting soon.


[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rwVgt4wL/recon-NOAA3-WB09-A-IDA-dropsonde7-20210829-0917.png [/url]how to check if my keyboard is working

NEXRAD indicates that convection in the inner core is still strengthening and the eye is contracting, so I would expect some further intensification till LF.

its really trying for a 5, would be rare to get there this close in but the trend is there, doesn't matter in terms of real effects

[hohnywx]

Just skimmed the 25 pages since I went to bed at 11 pm. All I can say is wow. May God have mercy on the people of Southern Louisiana.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1431920982231556096

[Shell Mound]

Unfortunately, the last few IR frames indicate that the eye may be making a concerted effort to clear out. I’m thinking 135 kt (possibly 140) at landfall.

Current motion on NEXRAD and satellite would place landfall very close to or over Grand Isle. The CDO is becoming ever more symmetric as of now.

[3090]

Folks, we are witnessing a historical pressure drop and wind increase over a 24 hour period. A 65mph wind increase as well as a pressure drop of ~40mb’s!

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431921438890541056

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431921438890541056?s=20

The last-minute lurch toward Cat-5 status at landfall reminds me of Michael’s (2018). If the eye can clear out just in time, 140 kt is quite doable at LF.

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431921438890541056?s=20

The last-minute lurch toward Cat-5 status at landfall reminds me of Michael’s (2018). If the eye can clear out just in time, 140 kt is quite doable at LF.

Looks like it's really trying to clear out an eye to me

[PavelGaborik]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431921438890541056?s=20

The last-minute lurch toward Cat-5 status at landfall reminds me of Michael’s (2018). If the eye can clear out just in time, 140 kt is quite doable at LF.

A bit of a lazy question but how does Ida compare to Michael size wise? She looks larger to my eye from memory.

[GCANE]

Eyewall nearly 50mm/hr rain rate.
From this point of view, definitely enough for further intensification.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431921438890541056?s=20

The last-minute lurch toward Cat-5 status at landfall reminds me of Michael’s (2018). If the eye can clear out just in time, 140 kt is quite doable at LF.

Looks like it's really trying to clear out an eye to me

Within the past ten minutes cloud tops in the eye have warmed by 15°C. At this rate I think Ida is definitely going to be close to 140 kt at landfall.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1431834487206432774

[LARanger]

Just heard 100mph sustained from Livingston parish to Hammond Gusts over 110mph

Dammit. I was prepping with 100ish in mind, but still.

[Highteeld]

The last-minute lurch toward Cat-5 status at landfall reminds me of Michael’s (2018). If the eye can clear out just in time, 140 kt is quite doable at LF.

Looks like it's really trying to clear out an eye to me

Within the past ten minutes cloud tops in the eye have warmed by 15°C. At this rate I think Ida is definitely going to be close to 140 kt at landfall.

It would sure seem that way. The 900 mb winds would support that...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I removed that vortex message from my system as it had an invalid pressure. Sondes in the eyewall had a lower pressure than 952mb.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

[Shell Mound]

Looks like it's really trying to clear out an eye to me

Within the past ten minutes cloud tops in the eye have warmed by 15°C. At this rate I think Ida is definitely going to be close to 140 kt at landfall.

It would sure seem that way. The 900 mb winds would support that...