ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Owasso]

Extrap 932.3
146kt FL

[Owasso]

SFMR 140kt but flagged.

[wx98]

This thing is knocking hard on Cat 5.

[Teban54]

Hard to imagine merely a month ago there was talk of this season underperforming and being a dud with an active EPAC and shear/dry air when now we are faced with a near-Cat 5 bearing down on New Orleans. From now on, 2021 once again joins the list of recent seasons to feature at least one nasty August major and a sudden switch flip.

Just 12 hours ago there were talks on Ida being behind schedule and not intensifying much despite the warm waters... Some were calling a Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 peak/landfall then.

[SunnyThoughts]

150 935mb speechless

[LARanger]

Just 12 hours ago there were talks on Ida being behind schedule and not intensifying much despite the warm waters... Some were calling a Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 peak/landfall then.

That was the model output. NHC held at low 4, but all the guidance was lower.

[Weatherboy1]

All I can say is best of luck to those in the path of this storm. Please be safe.

[kevin]

WTNT64 KNHC 291057
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA PLANE FINDS IDA STRONGER...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near
Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82
mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA
elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

[LARanger]

Wow, Ida is about to throw Laura and the 1856 Last Island Hurricane off the strongest Louisiana landfall throne. Absolutely crazy.

This motherbleeping derogatory-female-term needs to calm the bleep down.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Category5Kaiju]

150/935? Already more intense than Laura, wow.

[Nimbus]

Just like Charlie once it got down in the 960's the bottom fell out.
Looks like recon found surface pressure of 932-935 this pass.
Winds probably haven't caught up to that yet but no sign of an EWRC yet so maybe the core wind field will stay a little narrower at landfall.

[cane5]

This thing is knocking hard on Cat 5.

You have to think lotsa of Tornadoes hidden in the storm.

[Javlin]

New Orleans is about to get something it has never received in modern times they Thought K hit there with barely 75mph winds for the most part this will be the real thing.Hunker down stay dry have tools mainly a hatchet for the roof should the water rise that far.

Here in Biloxi light breeze drizzle half of the beach @6PM last evening was already inundated I guess 3/4' rise.

[tolakram]

I'm not sure we have enough crow to serve yesterdays experts.

[aspen]

This is gonna by sub-930 by next pass…

[Do_For_Love]

I figured it was going to be a major by this morning but dang I didn't expect this. It really might pull a Michael and make a 5 into landfall. 16 years to the day of Katrina, too...man. Hopefully the Levees are ready

[Teban54]

At its current intensity, Ida will already tie Laura and the 1856 Last Island Hurricane for the strongest landfall in Louisiana by wind speed, assuming it holds steady before landfall. Ida looks poised to beat that record given that it still has ~6 hours over water.

Crazy we're beating a record that was just tied a year ago.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force recon just had 10 second estimated surface wind from SFMR, that was noted as suspect, at 140 knots (161.1 mph). It was where you would expect it to be in northeast quadrant though.

30 second flight level winds: 139 knots (160.0 mph)
10 second flight level winds: 146 knots (168.0 mph)

[kevin]

This might be the biggest drop in subsequent passes I've ever seen.