ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I'm not sure we have enough crow to serve yesterdays experts.

They do get the option to take it plain or with Tabasco, the few times I have had to eat crow I take it with Tabasco.

Folks, you can watch local coverage easily on the net and tv apps...wwl, fox8, wdsu. If you haven't been in a hurricane before, watching local tv coverage gives you a good idea of what really happens vs. national coverage.

https://www.wwltv.com/watch

[Category5Kaiju]

This is probably something Shell Mound may need to take note of as I know Shell Mound’s interest in such data, but it looks like Ida is going to make a CONUS landfall as a high end Cat 4 or possible Cat 5 without originating in the MDR.

[Kingarabian]

Getting stronger than Dvorak estimates now. ADT is at 6.5 about 127kts.

[Highteeld]

[StormPyrate]

So the NHC was conservative forecasting 140 at landfall, and folks were critical
Well here we are.
Always respect the official forecast even if you don’t agree with it

[toad strangler]

The dreaded “Carla Cradle” delivers another monster. Truly remarkable.

[jlauderdal]

I'm chasing Ida in parking garage in Western New Orleans right now. Winds are starting to pick as a few of the bands roll through.

No one here thought this was going to get as intense as it is. If the eyewall does make it into New Orleans it will be bad.

A chasers best friend, the parking garage, they are sturdy and you can get up high and always find shelter from the wind as needed.

[sma10]

The dreaded “Carla Cradle” delivers another monster. Truly remarkable.

Ida is our generation's Camille. These two storms are extremely alike

[toad strangler]

:blowup:

I'm not sure we have enough crow to serve yesterdays experts.

I deserve some crow right now.

You owned and that's ok, we have all been there on the crow front.

You won’t find me there. I learned a loooong time ago to never trust the tropics. Either side of the scale and no matter how advanced we think our tools are.

[KBBOCA]

Even former NHC scientist Franklin is eating some crow this morning. This was a pretty cool Twitter exchange.....

 https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1431756206184574980




 https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1431934373180461063




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1431938213443219464

[Meteorcane]

Prayers for all those in SELA today... truly a terrifying situation, meteorologically marvelous but absolutely horrible from a human perspective. It seems too late in the game for an EWRC to do much, and honestly a more confined wind field (although the wind field is not necessarily small at present) may be better if the eyewall is able to miss the bulk of the NOLA metro to the west. Even then, someone will get it, the only hope is evacuation orders were heeded in those areas.

Already seeing sustained winds above hurricane force (albeit at about 20-25 meters) near the Mississippi Delta, and that is outside of the eyewall even so hurricane force winds will likely clip portions of the NOLA metro regardless.

[HurricaneIrma]

Not verified yet

Sent from my SM-A215U using Tapatalk

[Nimbus]

New Orleans proper will still probably miss the eastern eyewall, but their margin of error is getting down to few tens of miles.

The core windfield is still growing steel reinforced concrete parking garage would be my bug-out preference at this point. Infrastructure is going to take a while to recover unfortunately.

[Shell Mound]

New Orleans proper will still probably miss the eastern eyewall, but their margin of error is getting down to few tens of miles.

The eastern eyewall seems most likely to impact Lafitte and Boutte, the latter of which is just SSW of Luling and WSW of St-Rose.

[FireRat]

Waking up to this and holy cow!! All I can say is I hope those in the path of Ida got the heck out of there. My thoughts and prayers are with Louisiana today, can't believe they're getting yet another monster in only a year's time. Category 5 is definitely on the table, and 16 years to the day of Katrina's landfall, man August 29 is quite an unlucky day for the northern Gulf coast!

[kevin]

Laura, Delta, Zeta and now Ida. I really feel for Louisiana, stay safe everyone.

[SunnyThoughts]

Watching live coverage here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D7pQxnOIjI

They are saying already 5400 people without power.

[jlauderdal]

Even former NHC scientist Franklin is eating some crow this morning. This was a pretty cool Twitter exchange.....

https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1431756206184574980?s=20

https://twitter.com/FranklinJamesL/status/1431934373180461063?s=20

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1431938213443219464?s=20

Intensity forecasting continues to be mysterious but getting better. A 3/4 was always in the cards but predicting RI is really iffy, James Franklin has the credentials and he missed it to the downside.

[Teban54]

Not verified yet https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210829/caae65917a6899f45d7aea10b315f488.jpg

Sent from my SM-A215U using Tapatalk

Those 160 mph (140 kt) SFMR are questionable though. Not only are they flagged, but there have been issues with SFMR overestimating at intensities this high, as seen from the downgrade of Iota last year.

Flight level winds do not currently suggest Cat 5 strength at surface level, though they will likely reach the threshold soon.

[PTPatrick]

Honestly just unreal what’s unfolding. If you asked an expert what they thought a bad hurricane scenario looked like for Nola, theyd probably say a storm that develelops too quickly for sufficient fear and mandatory evacuation, that blows up to a cat 5 near landfall. I am sure there are many non evacuees that went to be hedging cat 2-3 further west. The “improvements” after katrina to the levee system are about to be seriously tested.

Checked models this morning and not only has Ida continued tk hug right, gfs, and hwrf etc all have shifted well right, landfalling Grand isle and basically following something a path over west metro(LA place, gonzales, Hammond, i-55 and up toward McComb. ) so they are a bit east of NHC now i think…but I’m squinty eyed pre coffee