ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[SohCahToa]

Storms picking up here in Mandeville. We will be outside of the worst of it, but this will not be a fun 24 hours or so. Good luck to everyone else in Ida’s path!

[aspen]

Those NOAA pressures are weird. Extrapolated pressures are in the mid 950s, while dropsondes from both planes are about 20mb lower.

[HurricaneIrma]

Possible cat.5

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[StormPyrate]

Normally over the top intensity HWRF was not far off on this one

[AlabamaDave]

New Orleans proper will still probably miss the eastern eyewall, but their margin of error is getting down to few tens of miles.

I hope so, but I'm very concerned for some of the very heavily populated western suburbs like Kenner and the Westbank communities. LaPlace will absolutely get pummeled along with Houma.

[SteveM]

Just woke up to this. Good lord. It seems all the work she put into improving structure yesterday now sees wind speeds rapidly catching up. Thinking of the people of Louisiana.

[AlabamaDave]

Honestly just unreal what’s unfolding. If you asked an expert what they thought a bad hurricane scenario looked like for Nola, theyd probably say a storm that develelops too quickly for sufficient fear and mandatory evacuation, that blows up to a cat 5 near landfall. I am sure there are many non evacuees that went to be hedging cat 2-3 further west. The “improvements” after katrina to the levee system are about to be seriously tested.

Checked models this morning and not only has Ida continued tk hug right, gfs, and hwrf etc all have shifted well right, landfalling Grand isle and basically following something a path over west metro(LA place, gonzales, Hammond, i-55 and up toward McComb. ) so they are a bit east of NHC now i think…but I’m squinty eyed pre coffee

The center tracking from Grand Isle to LaPlace would surely put a large chunk of the New Orleans metro in horrendous conditions, especially Jefferson Parish (population of 440,000, higher than the city of New Orleans).

[weeniepatrol]

Be careful posting from twitter. I'm seeing a lot of weenies (as opposed to actual degreed meteorologists) being linked

[abajan]

My best guess is it'll reach Cat 5 then weaken to Cat 4 as it goes through an ERC before landfall.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1431942419965267971

[jlauderdal]

Normally over the top intensity HWRF was not far off on this one

HWRF does a decent job with intense systems, it does a horrible job as we have seen this season with weaker systems that never have a chance to develop into something intense. It provides eye candy and gets way more traction than it should on this board for the weak stuff.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1431942980764454917

[StormPyrate]

My best guess is it'll reach Cat 5 then weaken to Cat 4 as it goes through an ERC before landfall.

Have they found a double peak yet?
I would think there would need to be indicators now for that to happen before landfall

[xironman]

Honestly just unreal what’s unfolding. If you asked an expert what they thought a bad hurricane scenario looked like for Nola, theyd probably say a storm that develelops too quickly for sufficient fear and mandatory evacuation, that blows up to a cat 5 near landfall. I am sure there are many non evacuees that went to be hedging cat 2-3 further west. The “improvements” after katrina to the levee system are about to be seriously tested.

Checked models this morning and not only has Ida continued tk hug right, gfs, and hwrf etc all have shifted well right, landfalling Grand isle and basically following something a path over west metro(LA place, gonzales, Hammond, i-55 and up toward McComb. ) so they are a bit east of NHC now i think…but I’m squinty eyed pre coffee

The center tracking from Grand Isle to LaPlace would surely put a large chunk of the New Orleans metro in horrendous conditions, especially Jefferson Parish (population of 440,000, higher than the city of New Orleans).

Does not look like the kind of terrain that is going to knock down a hurricane that is intensifying at landfall.

[Kohlecane]

I thought at 2am we had seen a crazy pressure drop, go to sleep for 5 1/2 hours and it's dropped almost 20mb

[Stangfriik]

I just woke up to far too many pages to look through but have there been any streams posted from chasers or cameras?

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1431943032006393856

[Highteeld]

Eye looking a tad more symmetrical

[thoughtsinchaos]

How much do hurricanes usually add to hospitalizations? If Louisiana is at 90%+ capacity, is that unused 10% sufficient for a Cat 5 mass casualty event? EMS and hospitals are already stretched to breaking point in the entire southern US. Human toll of Ida seems set to be catastrophic

[SecondBreakfast]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1431942980764454917

Was just coming here to post this to ask about it. Didn’t Michael RI at the end in the panhandle? Or it doesn’t qualify for this plot?

Unreal to think I watched Katrina’s progress on TWC in my college dorm knowing how bad it was going to be, and now watching something worse unfold.