ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[emings]

 https://twitter.com/news_fuentes/status/1431946901729988610

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, it looks like my guess of “as strong as Laura, plus or minus 5kt and 2mb” panned out, though at this rate it might be a tad low. Insane disaster unfolding, hopefully the track is just west enough to keep New Orleans out of the eyewall.

[skyline385]

Looks insane on radar too

[Do_For_Love]

Normally over the top intensity HWRF was not far off on this one

When I was initially following hurricanes and such I was also informed that the HWRF was a cartoon...honestly though, I feel like in the last couple of years that the HWRF was been pretty good in terms of storm structure and intensity. Not saying it still doesn't overshoot at times, but it's a predictive tool with value IMO

[kevin]

937 mbar with 60 kt surface winds, this is probably in the upper 920s now.

[RL3AO]

Special advisory issued

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/AtlasCUK/status/1431949192855912454

[Kohlecane]

Normally over the top intensity HWRF was not far off on this one

When I was initially following hurricanes and such I was also informed that the HWRF was a cartoon...honestly though, I feel like in the last couple of years that the HWRF was been pretty good in terms of storm structure and intensity. Not saying it still doesn't overshoot at times, but it's a predictive tool with value IMO

As mentioned earlier, it does good with stronger storms and overall good for short term track and strength

[USTropics]

Speechless:

[aspen]

Winds look to be holding steady at 130 kt. Let’s see if the AF plane finds a deepening pressure.

[Clearcloudz]

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431938416804048898

[weeniepatrol]

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

Wtf.

[KBBOCA]

Speechless:

https://i.imgur.com/fQULHFf.gif

That's going to be a historic picture.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[AlabamaDave]

Unless I'm missing something, doesn't it look like there is a good chance a big chunk of the New Orleans metro will catch the eyewall?

[Kazmit]

Going to bed now. If current deepening rates continue, I’ll wake up to a ~935 mb cat 4.

Just woke up. Holy **** I was right.

[Bad_Hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/txstormchasers/status/1431946038504566786

[aspen]

Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the
0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130
kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR
winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported
that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that
before landfall occurs.

Wtf.

STILL 12 hours before landfall?! Oh my god this is gonna be a Cat 5 by then, isn’t it…

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431951160202698757