ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1431952585519505412

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Drop got 932mb at 32kt

That puts the pressure ~930mb. Still deepening at a decent clip.

I was disappointed when Laura didn’t make it to a cat five, but I will be absolutely astonished if ida doesn’t make it to a cat five

"Disappointed" is not the term I'd use to describe that.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1431954927212015617

[kronotsky]

Is Ida entering somewhat higher shear? Latest IR and Dvorak frames show a warmer SE quadrant and a sharper demarcation between light/heavy in the NW.

Is it starting to encounter southwesterly flow on the flank of its ULAC as it begins to encounter the westernmost axis of ML ridging and enter westerlies?

Don't see the feature in the NW. The SE quadrant has been a little warm for a few hours now, but it's been firing convection in the eyewall the whole time. And immediately before that the eye had yet to circularize. What was the shear forecast yesterday?

[Stangfriik]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv329Cgg/goes16-ir-09-L-202108291102.gif

What's happening on the eastern side just outside the eyewall?

[skyline385]

I was disappointed when Laura didn’t make it to a cat five, but I will be absolutely astonished if ida doesn’t make it to a cat five

Atleast Laura was headed for a relatively low pop area, Ida isn't

[Jr0d]

AF305 confirms that Ida is still rapidly intensifying in terms of pressure, 928.1 mbar now .

Extrapolated pressure is not official and often lower than the actual pressure, the dropsonde data should be in any second. Regardless, Ida has not peaked.

Here's that reading, not sure how it will be interpreted.

115530 2830N 08932W 6964 02566 9281 +226 +039 129016 023 033 002 00

I saw that. Its been a good 30 minutes since the last dropsonde from the eye.

I know from watching the data from past storms that the NHC official report is always a couple MBs higher than the extrapolated pressure we get above.

Regardless, that shows that Ida is likely below 930mb now and yet to show any signs she has peaked.

Edit:
Just saw the dropsonde with 932mb and 34kts of wind.... definitely supports a pressure of 929-930mb.

[skyline385]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv329Cgg/goes16-ir-09-L-202108291102.gif

What's happening on the eastern side just outside the eyewall?

Are you taking about the eyewall elongating? Those are mesovotices

[Iceresistance]

I just woke up to this! I went to bed when Ida was at 105 mph, now she's at 150 mph! And still getting stronger!

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1431952505605275653

[Shell Mound]

Is Ida entering somewhat higher shear? Latest IR and Dvorak frames show a warmer SE quadrant and a sharper demarcation between light/heavy in the NW.

Is it starting to encounter southwesterly flow on the flank of its ULAC as it begins to encounter the westernmost axis of ML ridging and enter westerlies?

Don't see the feature in the NW. The SE quadrant has been a little warm for a few hours now, but it's been firing convection in the eyewall the whole time. And immediately before that the eye had yet to circularize. What was the shear forecast yesterday?

I was referring to the sharp, thin boundary between intense convection and light convection in the NW quadrant, near the edge of the CDO.

[Category5Kaiju]

What's particularly unique about Ida imho among the many horrific storms that have occurred in the recent stretch of active years is how it is trying its best to fit the idea of a "Cat 5 hits major US metro area." Andrew came pretty close in 1992, but Ida is doing its best to unleash its own level of horror on New Orleans sadly.

[RL3AO]

Getting close to 135 kt especially with the falling pressure.

[Stangfriik]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/Bv329Cgg/goes16-ir-09-L-202108291102.gif

What's happening on the eastern side just outside the eyewall?

Are you taking about the eyewall elongating? Those are mesovotices

Yea where it has become more red rather than black and white. Thanks!

[StormPyrate]

Interesting band building on the north west side, but not able to wrap around yet

[skyline385]

What's happening on the eastern side just outside the eyewall?

Are you taking about the eyewall elongating? Those are mesovotices

Yea where it has become more red rather than black and white. Thanks!

[Blinhart]

This is turning in to a very unfortunate catastrophic deadly event unfolding and those that didn't evacuate from the barrier islands or South of Hwy 90, I-10 hopefully they did the permanent marker instructions so there is something for family members can mourn over. Sorry for such negative stuff, but there will be nothing left of most of the structures there and the shape of Louisiana will be redefined again.

[Do_For_Love]

Seems plausible to me that Ida could go sub-920 IF she continues to strengthen into landfall. She was ~935 at 6 this morning, probably 930 or so now, still deepening at ~2 mb an hour with 4-5 to go until landfall.

[GCANE]

[KBBOCA]

I'm not any kind of expert. Try to post tweets from only reliable sources... This caught my eye, but I'm not sure how to interpret.

 https://twitter.com/hwind/status/1431956291698704391