ATL: IDA - Models

[PTPatrick]

And Hwrf depicting 952 mb in 12 hrs and 130 mph.
And 944 at 18 with 140 mph nearing landfall.
24 hrs landfall over terrebonne Parish, 140 mph

Good bit stronger than prior runs.

[Kohlecane]

And Hwrf depicting 952 mb in 12 hrs and 130 mph.
And 944 at 18 with 140 mph nearing landfall.
24 hrs landfall over terrebonne Parish, 140 mph

Good bit stronger than prior runs.

Very interesting, and only about 24 out

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF:

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS:

[PandaCitrus]

Really bad model trend east of track for New Orleans right now. They are in greater danger of getting hit with the eastern eyewall.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1431755318623625221

[sikkar]

Do models still show intensification till land fall?

[tolakram]

Do models still show intensification till land fall?

Yep, every one does, some stronger than others.

[tolakram]

For documentation, HWRF last run I'll post. Init too high, strength too low. Shows strengthening all the way in.

[cycloneye]

I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?

[PTPatrick]

I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?

They all were running a bit too west near /after landfall for most of this forecast period but did really well. They all sort of adjusted together for the most part. Euro probably had a more pronounced west bias overall though, also hmon. Honestly they didn’t pick up on the more eastern landfall and track until late last night.
Hwrf nailed intensity.

[IcyTundra]

I did not payed much atention to the models so my question is now that Ida made landfall, which one(s) performed the best?

Euro did good early on showing a Louisiana landfall while other models like the GFS were still insisting on a North Mexico or South Texas landfall.

[longhorn2004]

Isn't Ida suppose to be sucking in dry air by now? Its one of the reason for the rapid reduction from Cat 4 to Cat 1. Suppose to be sucking in cool air from the northwest.

[kevin]

The very first mention of New Orleans in this thread was regarding the 00z CMC run on the 25th of August. 06z GFS on the 25th of August also showed landfall just west of the city.

[tolakram]

The very first mention of New Orleans in this thread was regarding the 00z CMC run on the 25th of August. 06z GFS on the 25th of August also showed landfall just west of the city.

The CMC always hits New Orleans. It had to be right at some point.

This site at UAA tracks model verification for storms. Here's Ida: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al092021/

Unfortunately these don't go back very far.

[tolakram]

Here's trend gifs from Tropical Tidbits for all the models that have them available. Remember to look at run time in the upper left. I am noting the date above each model where it first is close to an LA landfall.

Aug 25th


Aug 25th (late, penalized for having timing wrong)


Aug 26th (also timing wrong, tough call)


Aug 26th (not a lot of runs, and also timing. Pretty good for a model many ignore)


Whatever. (Limited runs, I went back manually and the storm just isn't there. If you love NAVGEM then check my work ... Steve )