2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Teban54]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

That was done two weeks ago

Except for some who were still saying everything struggled except Grace.

[IcyTundra]

EPS has some members that are awfully bullish on the next carribean storm.

[Chris90]

It’s kind of hard to believe that the bell rung 9 days ago and we’ve already had 2 majors, both which made landfall at major hurricane strength.

This is what I was expecting last year. I’m not saying last year wasn’t terrible and active, because it absolutely was, it just felt off balance I guess because we were burning through names but didn’t have a major until Laura, and then we had another break from majors until Teddy I believe. This year isn’t burning through names quite as fast, but more storms are achieving higher intensities in regard to storm count to major ratio. So far 2021 is feeling like the mash up between 2017+2020 that no one asked for. Not at 2020’s pace, but the storms that do form are achieving higher intensities more consistently like 2017.

[captainbarbossa19]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

One thing that is quite concerning is that both majors that formed were intensifying on approach to landfall. It seems like the strongest storms unfortunately are also forming in the western part of the basin. I think this is going to be a very long season.

[Hammy]

CFS model from several weeks ago seems like it nailed the trend--Western Caribbean/Gulf is where the show is with some recurves otherwise.

[aspen]

CFS model from several weeks ago seems like it nailed the trend--Western Caribbean/Gulf is where the show is with some recurves otherwise.

One of the runs from late July correctly predicted a big storm in the Gulf during the last days of August, which has verified in the form of Ida.

[WiscoWx02]

CFS showing as favorable of a look for September as you can get. Rising over western Indian Ocean, Africa and sinking in the eastern Pacific. SSTA's are pretty favorable now too with the entire MDR above normal and the Nino 1+2 area finally cooling down. Precip pattern looks somewhat active but not jaw dropping though which doesn't add up IMO but it's the CFS I guess. Probably going to be active for the next week and a half and then dead for a week then busy again dependent on Kelvin Wave activity.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1432045400010022912




 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1432050866337587202

[IcyTundra]

I would expect the NHC to make this a new AOI in the TWO.

[weeniepatrol]

Here's quite an indicator and let me tell you the fact that it's not even September has me feeling extremely uncomfortable right now.

[jhpigott]

Whoops. Wrong thread

[IcyTundra]

Ida is just the beginning... I think we are in for at least 1 more major hitting the CONUS imo and August isn't even over yet still have all of September and October as well.

[ThetaE]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

It hasn't felt like this season has been abnormally active with last year's fervent pace fresh on the mind, but we're only two letters behind 2005! That year, Maria formed on Sep 1 and Lee on Sep 5. If we get 3 named storms quickly enough (TD 10, Caribbean, and MDR), we could temporarily tie or surpass that year in terms of named storms!

[ThetaE]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

It hasn't felt like this season has been abnormally active with last year's fervent pace fresh on the mind, but we're only two letters behind 2005! That year, Maria formed on Sep 1 and Lee on Sep 5. If we get 3 named storms quickly enough (TD 10, Caribbean, and MDR), we could temporarily tie or surpass that year in terms of named storms!

Sorry, Nate on Sep 5, not Lee.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think this season is beginning to really show its true colors now. With Grace and Ida (and with many strong ensemble members for the MDR system), I personally think reaching 3 major hurricanes by the beginning of September may not be a far stretch from what is possible. In terms of named storms, if TD10, the possible Caribbean system, and the MDR system are all named, that would conceivably bring us all the way to Nicholas by early to mid September or so. At this point I am going to say that reaching the far end of the naming list (perhaps even using all 21 names) could very well occur, and if a La Nina allows for late season activity to flourish, then we may even end up seeing at least Adria or Braylen by the season's end. In other words, I seriously think that this season has the potential to be very active and impactful, and who knows what kinds of threats September, October, and perhaps even November will bring?

[toad strangler]

Already at 9/4/2, and it’s only August 29th. No other season in this current active streak has had two majors before September; the last was 2010. August will probably finish off at 11/4/2 with the two depressions becoming Julian and Kate, but it’s possible TD10 becomes a hurricane in the subtropics if it survives the next few days. We’ll see a massive ACE boost from future Larry, which could be a long-tracking MDR major and stay away from land. By September 5th, we might be at 12/6/3.

Yeah the season for season cancel posts is pretty much done now.

It hasn't felt like this season has been abnormally active with last year's fervent pace fresh on the mind, but we're only two letters behind 2005! That year, Maria formed on Sep 1 and Lee on Sep 5. If we get 3 named storms quickly enough (TD 10, Caribbean, and MDR), we could temporarily tie or surpass that year in terms of named storms!

Man I disagree. This season is ENFUEGO and has felt like it too.

[AlphaToOmega]

I believe it is safe to say that September will be very active.

[toad strangler]

I think this season is beginning to really show its true colors now. With Grace and Ida (and with many strong ensemble members for the MDR system), I personally think reaching 3 major hurricanes by the beginning of September may not be a far stretch from what is possible. In terms of named storms, if TD10, the possible Caribbean system, and the MDR system are all named, that would conceivably bring us all the way to Nicholas by early to mid September or so. At this point I am going to say that reaching the far end of the naming list (perhaps even using all 21 names) could very well occur, and if a La Nina allows for late season activity to flourish, then we may even end up seeing at least Adria or Braylen by the season's end. In other words, I seriously think that this season has the potential to be very active and impactful, and who knows what kinds of threats September, October, and perhaps even November will bring?

Climatology says that the CONUS has a day or two short of 9 weeks left. Barring some crazy anomalous situation like the far SW Atlantic Basin saw well into November last year.

[aspen]

We could be at 4 majors by mid-September, depending on how the 40/80 wave and the possible WCar system progress. The former looks like it’ll probably be a high-ACE fish major, and after what happened with Grace and Ida, any Caribbean/Gulf storm needs to be watched VERY closely.

I’m praying that if anything starts forming in the Caribbean, it better stay the hell away from Louisiana. 4 Cat 2+ landfalls in 12 months is more than enough.

[toad strangler]

We could be at 4 majors by mid-September, depending on how the 40/80 wave and the possible WCar system progress. The former looks like it’ll probably be a high-ACE fish major, and after what happened with Grace and Ida, any Caribbean/Gulf storm needs to be watched VERY closely.

I’m praying that if anything starts forming in the Caribbean, it better stay the hell away from Louisiana. 4 Cat 2+ landfalls in 12 months is more than enough.

They go where they go.