2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[IcyTundra]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

[MetroMike]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

https://i.ibb.co/gvT4knX/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-240.gif

So much for this pattern abating this year again for the new Hurricane alley of the US.

[Hammy]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

https://i.ibb.co/gvT4knX/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-240.gif

It's actually been one of the more reliable models the last couple of years, at least with lower latitudes. With both Grace and Ida, just five days out the Euro had an open wave, and GFS a lower end tropical storm, so I'd bet on this being more likely than not if it continue showing up.

[cheezyWXguy]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

https://i.ibb.co/gvT4knX/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-240.gif

It's actually been one of the more reliable models the last couple of years, at least with lower latitudes. With both Grace and Ida, just five days out the Euro had an open wave, and GFS a lower end tropical storm, so I'd bet on this being more likely than not if it continue showing up.

This area of interest has been particularly confusing to me. The gfs consistently showed this for a week, but has largely dropped it. But the cmc has been amazingly consistent. I know the gfs tends to have a cag bias, but does the cmc?

[captainbarbossa19]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

https://i.ibb.co/gvT4knX/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-240.gif

It's actually been one of the more reliable models the last couple of years, at least with lower latitudes. With both Grace and Ida, just five days out the Euro had an open wave, and GFS a lower end tropical storm, so I'd bet on this being more likely than not if it continue showing up.

This area of interest has been particularly confusing to me. The gfs consistently showed this for a week, but has largely dropped it. But the cmc has been amazingly consistent. I know the gfs tends to have a cag bias, but does the cmc?

18z GEFS has a lot more support for this now.

[aspen]

The CMC is up to its old tricks once again and wants to wipe out the gulf coast.

https://i.ibb.co/gvT4knX/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-240.gif

It's actually been one of the more reliable models the last couple of years, at least with lower latitudes. With both Grace and Ida, just five days out the Euro had an open wave, and GFS a lower end tropical storm, so I'd bet on this being more likely than not if it continue showing up.

This area of interest has been particularly confusing to me. The gfs consistently showed this for a week, but has largely dropped it. But the cmc has been amazingly consistent. I know the gfs tends to have a cag bias, but does the cmc?

CMC has been quite genesis-happy, and so far everything it has shown in the last two weeks has developed.

This is very similar to the GFS’s problem last year: it would consistently show a system in the West Caribbean during the long range, but would suddenly drop it in the mid-range only to pick it up again a few days out. The GFS did this to Gamma, Delta, Zeta, Eta, and Iota.

[weeniepatrol]

18z GEFS has a lot more support for this now.

[IcyTundra]

The western gulf is untapped and should largely be uneffected by the cold wake left by Ida in the central gulf if it goes into the western gulf. If this gets into the western gulf watch out.

[Jagno]

Below was a FB post made by one of our local mets completely disregarding any type of potential development regarding this system because the GFS doesn't show it.

Wade Hampton KPLC
tSrhpons4oiredh ·
You are welcome to your opinion, but not your facts... I keep seeing and hearing rumors of another tropical system coming behind Ida. Well here is the full 16 day forecast from the latest GFS model. It did an amazing job on Ida, and it shows NO tropical systems over the next 16 days in the Gulf of Mexico. Now we are in the heart of hurricane season, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see another tropical system. But there is NO way to know what happens that far out in time.
IF there is a threat to SWLA we will let you know. But for tonight count yourself lucky that Ida missed us here in SWLA. And at the same time keep our friends and neighbors in SELA in your thoughts and prayers. It is likely going to be very bad there.
And let this be a reminder that everything you see on social media is not correct. There are a lot of "so-called forecasters" that post individual model data with no context. Trust me, if I see a true threat to SWLA I'll let you know. Remember there are people that think the Earth is flat too, so there is plenty of misinformation out there...

[Kohlecane]

Below was a FB post made by one of our local mets completely disregarding any type of potential development regarding this system because the GFS doesn't show it.

Wade Hampton KPLC
tSrhpons4oiredh ·
You are welcome to your opinion, but not your facts... I keep seeing and hearing rumors of another tropical system coming behind Ida. Well here is the full 16 day forecast from the latest GFS model. It did an amazing job on Ida, and it shows NO tropical systems over the next 16 days in the Gulf of Mexico. Now we are in the heart of hurricane season, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see another tropical system. But there is NO way to know what happens that far out in time.
IF there is a threat to SWLA we will let you know. But for tonight count yourself lucky that Ida missed us here in SWLA. And at the same time keep our friends and neighbors in SELA in your thoughts and prayers. It is likely going to be very bad there.
And let this be a reminder that everything you see on social media is not correct. There are a lot of "so-called forecasters" that post individual model data with no context. Trust me, if I see a true threat to SWLA I'll let you know. Remember there are people that think the Earth is flat too, so there is plenty of misinformation out there...

Well said, judging by the way he wrote it he is correct, I mean we didn't have good location on IDA a week out with the ensembles other than to say Mexico to the W.GOM keep an eye out, and it ended up about 800miles E of the earliest OP models showing a Mexico strike. It would be like a Met in Tampico, Mexico saying the same thing about what would soon become Ida almost a week and a half ago .

[tomatkins]

The western gulf is untapped and should largely be uneffected by the cold wake left by Ida in the central gulf if it goes into the western gulf. If this gets into the western gulf watch out.

I'd be interested to see how much Ida affected the Gulf. Its got some pretty deep warm water - should probably recover pretty fast.

[Teban54]

The western gulf is untapped and should largely be uneffected by the cold wake left by Ida in the central gulf if it goes into the western gulf. If this gets into the western gulf watch out.

I'd be interested to see how much Ida affected the Gulf. Its got some pretty deep warm water - should probably recover pretty fast.

In 2005 the Gulf waters recovered after Katrina just in time for Rita to bomb out to 895 mb. The ~3.5 week gap between Katrina and Rita is much greater though, so hopefully the upcoming WCar wave would still feel the cold wake left by Ida and be nothing more than a struggling system (wishful thinking I know).

[Cpv17]

The western gulf is untapped and should largely be uneffected by the cold wake left by Ida in the central gulf if it goes into the western gulf. If this gets into the western gulf watch out.

I'd be interested to see how much Ida affected the Gulf. Its got some pretty deep warm water - should probably recover pretty fast.

In 2005 the Gulf waters recovered after Katrina just in time for Rita to bomb out to 895 mb. The ~3.5 week gap between Katrina and Rita is much greater though, so hopefully the upcoming WCar wave would still feel the cold wake left by Ida and be nothing more than a struggling system (wishful thinking I know).

Nothing may come outta this. We’ll see, but I wouldn’t be surprised if nothing develops in the Gulf. Ensembles don’t seem too enthused with it after it crashes into the Yucatán.

[SFLcane]

Season is over per gfs after Larry apparently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Season is over per gfs after Larry apparently.

Yeah, won't happen. Long-range has been useless at sniffing out increases in TC activity.

[Blinhart]

Do we have updated GoM OHC and Sea Surface Temp maps, now that Ida is a TD over Mississippi?

[Stormybajan]

Season is over per gfs after Larry apparently.

Spoke too soon?

[Teban54]

Do we have updated GoM OHC and Sea Surface Temp maps, now that Ida is a TD over Mississippi?

This probably belongs to the indicator thread, but:



The CDAS has a cold bias in the MDR but seems pretty decent for the Western Atlantic. Definitely a decrease in both SST and OHC, but still quite high and concerning.

[SFLcane]

Season is over per gfs after Larry apparently.

https://i.postimg.cc/FKMgHczL/Gfs-12z-sep1521.png
Spoke too soon?

It’s a low amplitude wave on the 378hr GFS potentially gone next run. Jumbo trof waiting over FL but We shall see

[aspen]

06z GEFS ensembles show some support for a second MDR system behind 90L/Larry, with the wave emerging off of Africa around Sunday/Monday.