ATL: LARRY - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS shows two tropical cyclones.

[Zonacane]

Repeat after me: Not. Guaranteed. To. Recurve

[eastcoastFL]

Repeat after me: Not. Guaranteed. To. Recurve

Yup. Globals looked to be trending a little west. Will have to see what they do when a well defined low forms

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

In this 12z run Euro gets closer to Bermuda.

[AutoPenalti]

Repeat after me: Not. Guaranteed. To. Recurve

I was very skeptical in the beginning and continue to do so.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS is a mess. Has two areas of low pressures tugging 90L north.

This is the Euro's storm. It correctly modeled this nearly two weeks in advance. I knock on the Euro a lot, but here it's done an incredibly impressive job predicting this.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Continues to shift slightly SW, still appears fishy... Look at the size of 90L at 240 hours compared to Ida...

[Blown Away]

First model plot for 90L... Does the Ukmet always start way L of everything else.

[tolakram]

Let's start with the Euro, beeline to Bermuda.

[tolakram]

GFS

[tolakram]

CMC

[cheezyWXguy]

Let's start with the Euro, beeline to Bermuda.

https://i.imgur.com/HkB2JkH.gif

Really not a fan of that ridge building in at the end. Good thing it’s so far out.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like a fish spinner....but will keep an eye out

[SouthFLTropics]

All of the models seem to be onboard for this one and make it significant. Assuming this doesn't continue chugging west and stays a fish, I look forward to seeing what kind of potential this one has. I'm sure it is going to rack up some ACE.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a strong fish signal thankfully, but we will need to wait a bit longer to know for sure and there is always Bermuda also:

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like a strong fish signal thankfully, but we will need to wait a bit longer to know for sure and there is always Bermuda also:

https://i.postimg.cc/qvpLLG0W/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh0-168.gif

Problem is the gefs seems heavily influenced by the idea of 2 storms forming out of this region, which probably isn’t likely. I still ultimately think this will probably be a fish if it doesn’t run into Bermuda or scrape Canada, but I agree more with the euro’s westward evolution over the next 5-7 days.

[tomatkins]

Looks like a strong fish signal thankfully, but we will need to wait a bit longer to know for sure and there is always Bermuda also:

https://i.postimg.cc/qvpLLG0W/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh0-168.gif

Problem is the gefs seems heavily influenced by the idea of 2 storms forming out of this region, which probably isn’t likely. I still ultimately think this will probably be a fish if it doesn’t run into Bermuda or scrape Canada, but I agree more with the euro’s westward evolution over the next 5-7 days.

Operational GFS sure does take its sweet time with Larry - still has it out in the central Atlantic on day 16 heading towards the Azores. Its a fish storm that is determined to take out all the fish.

[LarryWx]

Here is the 18Z EPS at 144 (end of run): All 51 members are still recurving with already a NW to NNW movement by ~hour 120. And this includes those members moving W to WNW pretty far south initially in the eastern Atlantic. Granted, the mean is a bit further west than the prior runs. But still there's more than enough upper troughing coming into the NE US that follows Ida which all serve to keep the WAR quite weak for the next 7-10 days and thus enough steering to allow for a recurve well away from the SE US.

Nothing is ever close to being set in stone this far in advance in the tropics. So, it obviously is still worth monitoring. But I continue to like the odds a lot right now of avoiding the SE US. Besides, a storm named Larry shouldn't be one to fear.

Also, Bermuda, Canada, and even the NE US are in somewhat more danger, especially Bermuda. But that can be addressed later.