2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

[Category5Kaiju]

Future Larry is likely about to be a big ACE producer and a strong MDR hurricane. With how this season looks to be shaping up and has been behaving recently, I think I have been further convinced to never ever trust any season canceled posts in July in any near future season whatsoever. Clearly after nearly 6 years of such practice they never come to fruition unfortunately.

[psyclone]

Future Larry is likely about to be a big ACE producer and a strong MDR hurricane. With how this season looks to be shaping up and has been behaving recently, I think I have been further convinced to never ever trust any season canceled posts in July in any near future season whatsoever. Clearly after nearly 6 years of such practice they never come to fruition unfortunately.

Club cancel gets rekt by climo 90% of the time. It won't stop them though. Then again, IIRC my preseason guess was 16-7-3. So in retrospect I sorta look a like a club cancel person...or at the very least, probably way too conservative. 4-6 majors is very doable if we just have 1 or 2 in september and again in october. That's not a stretch at this point.

[Category5Kaiju]

Future Larry is likely about to be a big ACE producer and a strong MDR hurricane. With how this season looks to be shaping up and has been behaving recently, I think I have been further convinced to never ever trust any season canceled posts in July in any near future season whatsoever. Clearly after nearly 6 years of such practice they never come to fruition unfortunately.

Club cancel gets rekt by climo 90% of the time. It won't stop them though. Then again, IIRC my preseason guess was 16-7-3. So in retrospect I sorta look a like a club cancel person...or at the very least, probably way too conservative. 4-6 majors is very doable if we just have 1 or 2 in september and again in october. That's not a stretch at this point.

Oh no, personally that's not what I mean by "season canceled" posts; there are some who firmly believe we will get only 13 NSs total or that dry air and shear will cause only 2 major hurricanes to form and a total ACE of 100.

[tolakram]

Eh come on, this has been a rather calm season cancel season. There's been more posts complaining about season cancel posts than actual cancel posts. I've said this twice before, maybe the third time is the charm? Some people down cast the season, others up cast. Discussion is fun.

[Stormybajan]

Eh come on, this has been a rather calm season cancel season. There's been more posts complaining about season cancel posts than actual cancel posts. I've said this twice before, maybe the third time is the charm? Some people down cast the season, others up cast. Discussion is fun.

I agree with this. I dont think I've seen more than ONE post I would explicitly define as Season Cancel on this thread.

[weeniepatrol]

Is this one of the least active WPAC seasons of all time? Excluding anomalous April monster Surigay the WPAC currently stands at a whopping 11/2/0... that's right.. the Atlantic has more majors than the WPAC does currently. If Larry becomes a major then we'll also have more majors than the EPAC which currently has 2.

Yet another doozy of a season unfolding.

[IcyTundra]

I think we will see something similar to 2005 with two more majors hitting the CONUS after a late August major hits the CONUS.

[underthwx]

Is this one of the least active WPAC seasons of all time? Excluding anomalous April monster Surigay the WPAC currently stands at a whopping 11/2/0... that's right.. the Atlantic has more majors than the WPAC does currently. If Larry becomes a major then we'll also have more majors than the EPAC which currently has 2.

Yet another doozy of a season unfolding.

I'm all for a quiet WPAC season with some of my people living in Igbarras Philippines.....and I'm for a quieter season in the Atlantic basin as well....no news is good news...

[Zonacane]

October and November are the big questions. Climo models hinting we'll be active late into the season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

October and November are the big questions. Climo models hinting we'll be active late into the season.

No surprise considering how back-heavy most seasons have been recently & how closely this season has been paralleling last year.

[Woofde]

October and November are the big questions. Climo models hinting we'll be active late into the season.

No surprise considering how back-heavy most seasons have been recently & how closely this season has been paralleling last year.

This season has been very similar to 2020 thus far. Honestly it's not too suprising considering that broad scale conditions are extremely similar.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1432445482111012877




I remember some analyses by USTropics and others earlier this year, who predicted that the warm anomalies in the Atlantic Nino regions would be transferred northward to the MDR. Extremely spot on.

[Category5Kaiju]

With Larry likely to be a major hurricane and with us having September, October, and perhaps November left to see activity (and with a green light for the Atlantic with low shear, anomalously warm ssts, little dust, and a strong WAM), this could very well end as a season with a high major hurricane count, like 6-7 potentially.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1432445482111012877?s=20

I remember some analyses by USTropics and others earlier this year, who predicted that the warm anomalies in the Atlantic Nino regions would be transferred northward to the MDR. Extremely spot on.

Yeah, certainly not a surprise to see this. Question was when it would finally start weakening, looks like this is the time. Also fits the trend of the past few years for there to be a big MDR warmup/AMM spike in late August

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1432445482111012877?s=20

I remember some analyses by USTropics and others earlier this year, who predicted that the warm anomalies in the Atlantic Nino regions would be transferred northward to the MDR. Extremely spot on.

Yeah, certainly not a surprise to see this. Question was when it would finally start weakening, looks like this is the time. Also fits the trend of the past few years for there to be a big MDR warmup/AMM spike in late August

Yep. Idk what exactly has changed since 2017, but we have had insane seasons nearly every year since then.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1432662670356983816

[SFLcane]

I think the east coast will be free of problems this season the way things are looking. 2-3 weeks and it’s time to look closer to home. The Caribbean could be very active late September especially going into Oct.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1432662670356983816

That would explain why the GFS isn’t showing anything after Larry. We’ll have to focus on the Euro, CMC, and EPS ensembles for possible TCG; all have done great with Larry, and the ensembles suggest we could see another MDR system next week.

Another possible limiting factor for anything outside of the Gulf or WCar is that SSTs aren’t as warm as 2017 or 2020 were at this time. The eastern and central Caribbean are surprisingly “cool” for this time of year — they aren’t unfavorable, but it’s surprising to see most of the Caribbean lacking 29C SSTs. The MDR will probably get a bit of a warm-up as the heat from the Atlantic Niño shifts north.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1432662670356983816

That would explain why the GFS isn’t showing anything after Larry. We’ll have to focus on the Euro, CMC, and EPS ensembles for possible TCG; all have done great with Larry, and the ensembles suggest we could see another MDR system next week.

Another possible limiting factor for anything outside of the Gulf or WCar is that SSTs aren’t as warm as 2017 or 2020 were at this time. The eastern and central Caribbean are surprisingly “cool” for this time of year — they aren’t unfavorable, but it’s surprising to see most of the Caribbean lacking 29C SSTs. The MDR will probably get a bit of a warm-up as the heat from the Atlantic Niño shifts north.

Looks like CDAS cold bias might be affecting the Caribbean. Coral Reef Watch, while still showing some anomalously cool regions north and south of the Greater Antilles, doesn't have them nearly as cool as CDAS:



I also think the cool SSTs there might be a result of Fred, Grace and Ida tracking there in the last few weeks, even if they might not have gotten very strong there.