ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

Here's my two cents; I think that any impacts to land as of right now have a minimal chance of occurring. However, in the rare chance that models end up trending in that direction and a EC landfall scenario is plausible, I have no doubt it would be catastrophic. Larry will have weeks of time to strengthen, expand in size, undergo EWRC's. Some of the strongest hurricanes to hit the east coast have come from long track CV hurricanes.

[dexterlabio]

Lorenzo 2.0


Wouldn't it be great to get a Cat5 out of this but it goes ots and stays off any landmass?

[bob rulz]

Definitely rooting for a Karl 2004, Katia 2011, or Lorenzo 2019-type storm here. Looking through the last 20 years or so, long-tracking cat 4 hurricanes that don't affect land are actually much more rare than I thought.

[Extratropical94]

Since I haven't seen the 2am TWO posted anywhere, development chances for 90L are now 90/90

A well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic more than 200 miles southwest of the coast of
Guinea. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning
to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[abajan]

Since I haven't seen the 2am TWO posted anywhere, development chances for 90L are now 90/90

A well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic more than 200 miles southwest of the coast of
Guinea. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning
to show some signs of organization, and environmental conditions
are conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
low moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Initially, it was west-northwestward to northwestward. Then it changed to just west-northwestward. Now it's westward to west-northwestward.

[kevin]

90L loop, tropical wave directly from the African coast, hopefully a delivery for the fishes.

[Blown Away]

31/0530 UTC 9.7N 18.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic

[aspen]

CIMSS's 850mb vorticity map suggests we might have another North Blob vs South Blob competition with this system. Visible imagery shows a robust circulation with what seem to be the blobs on the vort map.



However, if the HWRF is right, the LLC will concentrate between the two blobs. The 06z run has the LLC around 12N, putting Larry over 28.0-28.5C SSTs pretty early on in its life. I won't rule out the possibility of it becoming a hurricane before reaching 35W.

[cycloneye]

A well-defined low pressure system is located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic, a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of the
coast of Guinea. Associated showers and thunderstorms continue to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Teban54]

It does look like an LLC might be trying to form between the two blobs.

[xironman]

I like that spot north of 10 west of 18

[Blown Away]

NHC backing off slowly the bubble recurve in their cone and past 2 updates added W or WNW...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1432677777128497154

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 31/1130Z

C. 10.4N

D. 18.6W

E. FIVE/MET-11

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS GREATER THAN 3/10 BANDING RESULTING IN A DT OF
2.0. THE 24 HR TREND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING. MET IS 1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[Category5Kaiju]

While I expect future Larry to be a powerful fish storm and do a safe recurve, if for whatever reason the trajectory models trend more westward, I think this will really underline the idea that we need to study the interactions and dynamics between TCs and ridging/troughing better. Also, just out of curiosity, but does anybody know what the path models portrayed with storms like Isabel, Hugo, Irma, Florence, or Teddy when they were in their very early stages? Did they show a safe recurve, or did at least some of them imply a risk to land?

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 31, 2021:

Location: 10.4°N 18.6°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 70 nm

[Blown Away]

Soon to be Larry will be a Big Boy!!!

[cycloneye]

Almost TD.

[SFLcane]

Could be a problem for Bermuda. I’d keep a close eye

[AutoPenalti]

While I expect future Larry to be a powerful fish storm and do a safe recurve, if for whatever reason the trajectory models trend more westward, I think this will really underline the idea that we need to study the interactions and dynamics between TCs and ridging/troughing better. Also, just out of curiosity, but does anybody know what the path models portrayed with storms like Isabel, Hugo, Irma, Florence, or Teddy when they were in their very early stages? Did they show a safe recurve, or did at least some of them imply a risk to land?

The Irma model in it's early stages had most of them recurving but not before hitting Bermuda. After some days it became apparent that models noticed a stronger ridge in the mid-Atlantic that caused the WSW dive. It doesn't seem to be the case this time around.