Category5Kaiju wrote:While I expect future Larry to be a powerful fish storm and do a safe recurve, if for whatever reason the trajectory models trend more westward, I think this will really underline the idea that we need to study the interactions and dynamics between TCs and ridging/troughing better. Also, just out of curiosity, but does anybody know what the path models portrayed with storms like Isabel, Hugo, Irma, Florence, or Teddy when they were in their very early stages? Did they show a safe recurve, or did at least some of them imply a risk to land?
Hugo and Isabel are likely too old for models or at least model posts to exist, but IIRC when Irma was just a model storm that had not left Africa, most model runs didn't show the SW turn and had it recurving to the sea. When the wave just left Africa and was declared an invest, however, models seemed to be gradually trending west. Lots of broken images in the Irma model thread, but I found this on page 1:
By the time it was developing to a TS, the left-biased Euro started showing it coming close to the eastern seaboard (though definitely not SW Florida), and the thread was full of debates about whether it would go OTS:
(link)Btw, I found this for anyone who wants to do some SST comparisons:
