Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 91L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Teban54
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3204
Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm

Re: Disturbance to form in the SW Caribbean Sea

#21 Postby Teban54 » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:20 pm

Zonacane wrote:Isn't this... where we began?

Seeing predictions of this being a Mexico/CA storm is giving me vibes of early Ida as a model storm, which was thought to be Grace 2.0 at that time.
3 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: Disturbance to form in the SW Caribbean Sea

#22 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not very concerned about this system. Most likely, it'll track west into Central America and southern Mexico as a disturbance or depression. The Canadian is not the model to look at for such systems. The only thing it'll have going for it is that we're coming up to the Labor Day weekend, and the tropics are quite aware of holidays.



Dry. Very DRY humor.
0 likes   

User avatar
Zonacane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 361
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:23 pm

Re: Disturbance to form in the SW Caribbean Sea

#23 Postby Zonacane » Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:28 pm

Teban54 wrote:
Zonacane wrote:Isn't this... where we began?

Seeing predictions of this being a Mexico/CA storm is giving me vibes of early Ida as a model storm, which was thought to be Grace 2.0 at that time.

It was a Pink Floyd reference.
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#24 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:19 am

Last night sat images of SW Caribbean disturbance

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145303
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:53 am

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some
slow development of this system is possible by the end of the week,
if the system remains over water. This system is expected to move
gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#26 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:54 am

0 likes   

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 490
Age: 53
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#27 Postby ouragans » Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:56 am

xironman wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?YEAR=2021&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&TYPE=ssmi&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&ACTIVES=21-ATL-09L.IDA,21-ATL-10L.KATE,21-ATL-90L.INVEST,21-ATL-99L.INVEST,

99L? It was Ida... If this area becomes an Invest, it should be numbered 91L
0 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#28 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:10 am

ouragans wrote:
xironman wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?YEAR=2021&MO=Aug&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&TYPE=ssmi&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Latest&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&ACTIVES=21-ATL-09L.IDA,21-ATL-10L.KATE,21-ATL-90L.INVEST,21-ATL-99L.INVEST,

99L? It was Ida... If this area becomes an Invest, it should be numbered 91L


Sorry about that, I was on NRL looking for 90l and noticed they posted it. NRL has nice links to microwave. 12N 76W

Image
0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1620
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: Disturbance to form in the SW Caribbean Sea

#29 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:57 am

Looks like we have a little mid-level rotation but also a lot of shear.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor
1 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#30 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:22 am

There is a new cluster with rotation forming further northeast on the northern part of the disturbance- this could get into the GOm
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#31 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:24 pm

0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#32 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:02 pm

12Z CMC ends up forming this in the BOC. Don't think that solution is very realistic, but I'll still keep an eye on it

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
LadyBug72
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:39 pm
Location: about 20 miles from Galveston, Tx

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#33 Postby LadyBug72 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:06 pm

Newbie here so I'm still learning....

1. Is the CMC not a very reliable model?

2. Didn't this model pick up this possible development last week too?

Thank you!!
0 likes   
Formerly known as the user: Nikki

Alicia 83, Allison 01, Rita 05, Ike 08, Harvey 17, Nicholas 21, Coastal Texas Derecho 24, Beryl 24

Wampadawg
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 238
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2020 10:28 am
Location: South Texas

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#34 Postby Wampadawg » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:18 pm

LadyBug72 wrote:Newbie here so I'm still learning....

1. Is the CMC not a very reliable model?

2. Didn't this model pick up this possible development last week too?

Thank you!!


Also can anyone explain what the CMC and GFS might be seeing in the BoC that is driving their models?
0 likes   
Harvey,Hanna,Beta,Texas Winter storm2021,Nicholas,Beryl

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#35 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:28 pm

LadyBug72 wrote:Newbie here so I'm still learning....

1. Is the CMC not a very reliable model?

2. Didn't this model pick up this possible development last week too?

Thank you!!


CMC is pretty reliable but is usually seen as a worse model than the GFS (American model) and the ECMWF (European model). Usually it is better to look at the ensemble members from the GFS ensemble and Euro ensemble this far out because they show a wide range of different outcomes compared to one singular model run.

To answer your 2nd question yes the CMC has been showing development in this area for over a week now, but it is really the only major model showing substantial development so I wouldn't really worry about it at the moment. The GFS and Euro ensemble members aren't showing much of anything either so I think it is safe to say that nothing will probably come of this. People should still keep half an eye on it though as we still don't know how exactly this going to play out.
2 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Dickinson, Texas

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#36 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:40 pm

Wampadawg wrote:
LadyBug72 wrote:Newbie here so I'm still learning....

1. Is the CMC not a very reliable model?

2. Didn't this model pick up this possible development last week too?

Thank you!!


Also can anyone explain what the CMC and GFS might be seeing in the BoC that is driving their models?


I think the CMC and GFS are actually showing two different systems. The CMC develops the 0/20 area of interest in the SW Caribbean Sea in the Bay of Campeche while the GFS doesn't really do anything with the current area of interest instead it develops a seperate area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in about 10 days. To my untrained amateur eyes it looks like the CMC has a tropical wave interact with the monsoon trough in the Carribean while the storm the GFS is showing later on looks like it comes from the Central American Gyre.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20009
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#37 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:50 pm

LadyBug72 wrote:Newbie here so I'm still learning....

1. Is the CMC not a very reliable model?

2. Didn't this model pick up this possible development last week too?

Thank you!!


5 days, or 120 hours, is generally the longest timeframe any model can be trusted. Beyond that you might infer that a model is finding favorable conditions but the track or location can't be trusted. Under 120 hours you look for model agreement. The CMC might show a well defined low, the GFS might show nothing, the euro might show a slight red area of vorticity. That would be something to keep an eye on to see if agreement continues. For Ida, the CMC actually beat out the other two models by a half a day. All models showed something beyond 120 hours, but way down in the southern Gulf.

So in short, don't focus on a model saying you are going to get hit if it's just one model or past 120 hours. The NHC uses something call a super ensemble and will tag / warn way ahead of us guessing where something might go. If they see a strong agreement in development and track we'll know it.
8 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
LadyBug72
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:39 pm
Location: about 20 miles from Galveston, Tx

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#38 Postby LadyBug72 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 1:56 pm

Thank you everyone!
0 likes   
Formerly known as the user: Nikki

Alicia 83, Allison 01, Rita 05, Ike 08, Harvey 17, Nicholas 21, Coastal Texas Derecho 24, Beryl 24

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1620
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#39 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:13 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Not really seeing anything on the vorticity map.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=


I was looking at mids 500mb http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
1 likes   

edu2703
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 349
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 7:15 pm

Re: Disturbance in the SW Caribbean Sea

#40 Postby edu2703 » Tue Aug 31, 2021 4:28 pm

0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, Noots, USTropics and 44 guests