ATL: LARRY - Models

[aspen]

The HWRF is still probably overdoing it with the eye size. Looks a little SW of the 06z run.

[Kohlecane]

Adios says 12z Euro

https://i.imgur.com/dUoN8pO.gif

Seems so simple
Also I highly enjoy that non developing yet well defined wave following Due west that seems to not wanna follow Larry, Also If I know it's the CMC but if it ran another 24 hours and judging by the set up it depicts in the 500mb anm. That would be a close call for OBX before it would get picked up and out IMO(opinion/observation)

[RL3AO]

Seen this story before.

[AutoPenalti]

Seen this story before.

Pretty familiar too, it's eerie.

[Nimbus]

So far only one member of a model run brings this as far west as NC.
Appear to be quite a few inside of Bermuda, and if the trough does something unexpected like it goes negative tilt then Canada might be in the cone.

[CrazyC83]

Wayyyy W (inside Bermuda) on the 12 CMC (yes, I know) - and marching W/WNW

https://i.imgur.com/WD0Z3EZ.png

The irony: that setup is reminiscent - of the name Ida replaced.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wayyyy W (inside Bermuda) on the 12 CMC (yes, I know) - and marching W/WNW

https://i.imgur.com/WD0Z3EZ.png

The irony: that setup is reminiscent - of the name Ida replaced.

Ah yes, good ol' Izzy.

[sma10]

Looking at the 12Z EPS, have to believe there is a very high probability of Central Atlantic recurve. If one wishes to find reason for caution, there is a significant numbers of members that show a bit of a leftward WNW bend and slowdown around days 6-8 before resuming a more NW heading. I guess something to watch for in future runs

[Blown Away]

18z

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/zgkJ4KK.jpg
18z

Well.. this should raise some eyebrows, as it seems it's gonna come down to timing of trough, and the relative strength of ridging after whats left of Kate move out thinking tomorrow's 12Z/18Z will give us a better picture once the models see the true effects of that weakness IMAO

[aspen]

18z GFS has Cat 3 Hurricane Larry in only 72 hours. If this rapid intensification phase verifies, Larry will be a major east of 40W, the first such instance since Irma (Lorenzo was close IIRC).

Edit: actually it would be the first since Lorenzo. It became a major at 39.8W, but Larry has the potential to become one a little earlier than that. Irma became a major at 35.1W, making it one of the easternmost MDR majors on record.

[aspen]

HWRF what are you doing

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF another SW shift and is a W outlier. Finishes @19.5N/51.2W...

[Ptarmigan]

Now that's what I call a hurricane eye, reminds me a bit of Isabel.

https://i.imgur.com/waAW76X.png

That storms spans 8 degrees.

Tropical Cyclone Size
https://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequent ... ons#tcsize

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: 954 mb

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 22.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2021 0 12.3N 22.9W 1009 24
1200UTC 01.09.2021 12 12.8N 26.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 02.09.2021 24 11.9N 31.2W 1006 29
1200UTC 02.09.2021 36 12.7N 35.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 03.09.2021 48 12.6N 39.6W 1000 39
1200UTC 03.09.2021 60 13.3N 43.4W 995 47
0000UTC 04.09.2021 72 14.5N 46.9W 987 52
1200UTC 04.09.2021 84 16.3N 49.6W 977 56
0000UTC 05.09.2021 96 18.3N 52.0W 973 58
1200UTC 05.09.2021 108 20.3N 54.7W 969 64
0000UTC 06.09.2021 120 22.3N 56.9W 963 71
1200UTC 06.09.2021 132 24.2N 58.9W 964 64
0000UTC 07.09.2021 144 26.0N 60.3W 954 79

[kevin]

Euro ensemble comparison

12z yesterday


00z now

[Kohlecane]

SW at 180 compared to the 00z on GFS

[SouthFLTropics]

Not that this has any long term significance but I found this tidbit from Stewart's discussion this morning a little interesting...

"Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by
the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted
farther west."

At this time I don't feel it will have much impact further down the line as practically all the models take Larry on fishing trip, save for Bermuda possibly.

[tomatkins]

Euro ensemble comparison

12z yesterday
https://i.imgur.com/8KhSlkW.png

00z now
https://i.imgur.com/A1Zs2zb.png

Thank god that one outlier didnt end up being the operational output.

[PavelGaborik]

Leaning fish but it's something Atlantic Canada(And Even East coast United States) should at least keep an eye on for now.

GFS turns Larry into quite a large system as well.