ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 91, 2021090100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 781W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 027, SPAWNINVEST, al792021 to al912021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ouragans]

Why is setup at 0z? It should have been at 18z

[floridasun78]

this one sw carfribbean?

[cycloneye]

this one sw carfribbean?

Yes, that area.

[ElectricStorm]

I think the chances of this getting into the gulf are much lower than Ida and probably pretty low overall. However, if it does somehow manage to get there it could be a problem. I'm leaning towards no for now but we'll have to watch it just in case.

Considering what just happened, I hope this one doesn't make it up there...

[Nimbus]

Entergy New Orleans announced they have two local sources of power back up so some main trunks for the hospitals will be back online this week. The model run that brings this in just west of there isn't helping the planning any.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late
this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Javlin]

I was about to post in the other thread about to ask do I see a LLS @12.5N 77.5W?moving NW still have a TUTT out to the NNE causing shear but a little puff clouds pop up anyway.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

500mb vorticity is strong in that area also

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Tweet from earlier this evening from Philippe Papin.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1432816862182748165

[StPeteMike]

Not really convinced this will get its act going, but might set up a moist environment for something to spin up early next week…

[Wampadawg]

An area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late
this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Not really convinced this will get its act going, but might set up a moist environment for something to spin up early next week…

Anxiety in Houston back to 5%

[AlphaToOmega]

An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system remains possible over the next couple of days if it
remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph near the coast of Central America.
Thereafter, the system will have another opportunity for gradual
development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula later this week into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[xironman]

I think the models are initializing this one a bit south of where it is. The spin from yesterday afternoon is getting close to CA, but it is moving slow and is slightly north of west.

[TallyTracker]

I wonder if this disturbance might form the way the 3 BOC storms did in 2005: Bret (40mph TS), Gert (45 mph) TS, and Jose (50 mph). All three were quick spin ups near the coast. I think that’s this disturbance’s best chance at developing.

[dantonlsu]

Not too much model support for this one just yet.

[tropicwatch]

850mb vorticity is increasing but I think it is a little further north then what is depicted on this map.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[ChrisH-UK]

Just had a look at 91L on the satellite and it appears to be forming up quite well. However it has a wall of shear to get through.

Source - GOES-16 Red Band https://col.st/AY23g

[tropicwatch]

With Recon tentatively scheduled for tomorrow. Sounds like they will up the percentage of development chances.

[cycloneye]

Recent satellite wind data indicates the area of low pressure
located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined
circulation. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and displaced north of the center. Some slow
development of this system remains possible over the next day or two
if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph along the coast of Central America. By
early next week, the system will have another opportunity for
gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late this week into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Wampadawg]

Recent satellite wind data indicates the area of low pressure
located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has a well-defined
circulation. However, shower and thunderstorm activity remains
disorganized and displaced north of the center. Some slow
development of this system remains possible over the next day or two
if it remains over open water while moving west-northwestward or
northwestward at 5 to 10 mph along the coast of Central America. By
early next week, the system will have another opportunity for
gradual development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, heavy rains are possible across portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula by late this week into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Mmmm this seems just a little troubling