2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SoupBone]

I'd be interested to see how much Ida affected the Gulf. Its got some pretty deep warm water - should probably recover pretty fast.

In 2005 the Gulf waters recovered after Katrina just in time for Rita to bomb out to 895 mb. The ~3.5 week gap between Katrina and Rita is much greater though, so hopefully the upcoming WCar wave would still feel the cold wake left by Ida and be nothing more than a struggling system (wishful thinking I know).

Nothing may come outta this. We’ll see, but I wouldn’t be surprised if nothing develops in the Gulf. Ensembles don’t seem too enthused with it after it crashes into the Yucatán.

If it actually tracks over Nicaragua and Honduras, it would be a pretty decent disruptor to any system getting into the southern GoM. Right now, it doesn't look like it would make it far enough north to cross the Yuacatan.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, the 12z GFS really hates Louisiana.

[hurricane2025]

Over 15 days out won’t happen

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow, the 12z GFS really hates Louisiana.

GFS thinks that Louisiana is the new Florida. GFS used to destroy South Florida on the long range runs at least 50% of the time. I can't recall an attack by a modeled significant storm on Florida in quite some time. It's like we've been put in the safe space in model world.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS almost certainly won't happen but that fantasyland storm does kind of form in a weird area in the BOC not sure how it gets going and this is the 1st run the GFS is showing something significant developing in the BOC.

[SFLcane]

Wow, the 12z GFS really hates Louisiana.

GFS thinks that Louisiana is the new Florida. GFS used to destroy South Florida on the long range runs at least 50% of the time. I can't recall an attack by a modeled significant storm on Florida in quite some time. It's like we've been put in the safe space in model world.

No, steering just not favored any storm threatening after early in the season. I think the east coast goes unharmed this year but we’ll certainly have to watch the Caribbean later in SFL.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Louisiana really can't catch a break.

[IcyTundra]

I wouldn't worry about anything the GFS shows 10+ days out as it almost always doesn't happen the way the GFS shows it. Chances are GFS will drop this completely in future runs or show it going somewhere else that isn't Louisiana.

[Kohlecane]

I wouldn't worry about anything the GFS shows 10+ days out as it almost always doesn't happen the way the GFS shows it. Chances are GFS will drop this completely in future runs or show it going somewhere else that isn't Louisiana.

Consistency is key, true on the never pans the initial showing but we can revert back to pg 35. just to remind ourselves that models can only slowly get better with time and new tech, 2010's sure GFS and CMC made CAT 5 land falls in FL almost every day every few runs at 240+, but it's a new decade and after last season and better understanding on Climo these models are starting to become more and ore synchronized over time, minus the NAM JK it's good for weekly outlooks when it comes to severe weather set ups though!

[weatherdude1108]

This 12Z run of the GFS does look ominous. Hangs out off the coast of Texas, then treks towards LA, which I'm sure those in LA don't really want.

Yeah, lala land 384 hours out, but it is the time of year to pay more attention in this area.

[johngaltfla]

This 12Z run of the GFS does look ominous. Hangs out off the coast of Texas, then treks towards LA, which I'm sure those in LA don't really want.

Yeah, lala land 384 hours out, but it is the time of year to pay more attention in this area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021083112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_64.png

The next 60 days are the WORST for any GoM resident. Sometimes in November, but mostly Sept-Oct which spawns some nasty storms. I'm sure the models will have a field day by the 2nd week of September.

[StPeteMike]

This 12Z run of the GFS does look ominous. Hangs out off the coast of Texas, then treks towards LA, which I'm sure those in LA don't really want.

Yeah, lala land 384 hours out, but it is the time of year to pay more attention in this area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021083112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_64.png

The next 60 days are the WORST for any GoM resident. Sometimes in November, but mostly Sept-Oct which spawns some nasty storms. I'm sure the models will have a field day by the 2nd week of September.

Yeah, we Florida residents start freaking out around Late September/October.

[toad strangler]

This 12Z run of the GFS does look ominous. Hangs out off the coast of Texas, then treks towards LA, which I'm sure those in LA don't really want.

Yeah, lala land 384 hours out, but it is the time of year to pay more attention in this area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021083112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_64.png

The next 60 days are the WORST for any GoM resident. Sometimes in November, but mostly Sept-Oct which spawns some nasty storms. I'm sure the models will have a field day by the 2nd week of September.

Almost never November. Except for that weirdo year of 1985. Juan & Kate. Otherwise November is a desert as far as hurricanes go in the GOM. And only FL will see TS's in November per climo.

[StPeteMike]

Last hurricane to hit the Gulf was coincidentally a tropical depression at the moment, Hurricane Kate in ‘85. Considering the past few years though, I wouldn’t be surprise to see a hurricane in November impact the Gulf Coast this year. Hopefully not, but…

[Steve]

MJO looks to be making a run for 4/5 which would coincide with the discussion from a week ago as to whether or not we might have a week to 10 days break in early September. Doesn’t mean there can’t be any activity. But we aren’t likely to see a burst of 4 or 5 systems right away. Caution is the unfiltered output does show phase 3 until next weekend. Storms are firing in the Indian Ocean so it’s not going to be 100% quiet.

[SFLcane]

Nothing on the gfs and euro after Larry through mid September.

[SouthFLTropics]

Nothing on the gfs and euro after Larry through mid September.

Hows the old saying go…. It’s quiet………TOO quiet.


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[Category5Kaiju]

Nothing on the gfs and euro after Larry through mid September.

Yeah, I find that very hard to believe given the ever-so-warming MDR sst anomalies and the idea that La Nina occurrence later this winter has become more likely. I can easily see us getting at least 5 or 4 NSs this month after Larry.

[Teban54]

MJO looks to be making a run for 4/5 which would coincide with the discussion from a week ago as to whether or not we might have a week to 10 days break in early September. Doesn’t mean there can’t be any activity. But we aren’t likely to see a burst of 4 or 5 systems right away. Caution is the unfiltered output does show phase 3 until next weekend. Storms are firing in the Indian Ocean so it’s not going to be 100% quiet.

Does Phase 4 mean enhanced or reduced activity? Another post in the indicators thread said Phase 4 would be active, and IIRC some pro mets on Twitter mentioned
Phase 4 has the highest track density in the Atlantic.

[AlphaToOmega]

MJO looks to be making a run for 4/5 which would coincide with the discussion from a week ago as to whether or not we might have a week to 10 days break in early September. Doesn’t mean there can’t be any activity. But we aren’t likely to see a burst of 4 or 5 systems right away. Caution is the unfiltered output does show phase 3 until next weekend. Storms are firing in the Indian Ocean so it’s not going to be 100% quiet.

Does Phase 4 mean enhanced or reduced activity? Another post in the indicators thread said Phase 4 would be active, and IIRC some pro mets on Twitter mentioned
Phase 4 has the highest track density in the Atlantic.

Phase IV is the most active phase for the Tropical Atlantic. It is the phase that promotes the most MDR development.