ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

This thing might already have a CDO . . . Which is a sign that TD Twelve might already be Tropical Storm Larry if this keeps up . . .

There is not very much dry air or wind shear in it's way & Twelve also very good outflow as well as being a Tropical Depression, there is not very much of anything that could limit this system . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/42372648.gif

TD12 looks like it’s moving just S of due West...

I've noticed that too, it's looking like it's moving WSW . . .

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is going to be an amazing hurricane to watch, like Lorenzo & Teddy. Hopefully it steers clear of land (growing more confident it will, but we'll see)

[grapealcoholic]

Steering profile at higher levels is pretty slow. Could give time for ridging to build

[cycloneye]

A. 12L (NONAME)

B. 31/2330Z

C. 11.4N

D. 22.0W

E. THREE/MET-11

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.0 AMD PT=2.5. FT
IS BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY
OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track still has it as TD.

AL, 12, 2021090100, , BEST, 0, 119N, 223W, 30, 1006, TD

[SconnieCane]

This thing might already have a CDO . . . Which is a sign that TD Twelve might already be Tropical Storm Larry if this keeps up . . .

There is not very much dry air or wind shear in it's way & Twelve also very good outflow as well as being a Tropical Depression, there is not very much of anything that could limit this system . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/42372648.gif

TD12 looks like it’s moving just S of due West...

I've noticed that too, it's looking like it's moving WSW . . .

Oh ****.

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/183/ao73eB.gif

Wow

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity 95 KT.

120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH

[GeneratorPower]

This is not good. Watch Kate. If she moves out faster than expected maybe Larry does not recurve.

[grapealcoholic]

This is not good. Watch Kate. If she moves out faster than expected maybe Larry does not recurve.

It's probably a low scenario, but maybe 10% ?

[GeneratorPower]

This is not good. Watch Kate. If she moves out faster than expected maybe Larry does not recurve.

It's probably a low scenario, but maybe 10% ?

I’ve watched 20 years of the tropics. 100% of the disasters had a less than 10% chance of occurring.

[AutoPenalti]

This is not good. Watch Kate. If she moves out faster than expected maybe Larry does not recurve.

We won’t know for a few days. Kate wasn’t suppose to dissipate as quickly as it was modeled previously.

[grapealcoholic]

3.2 raw

2021SEP01 023000 2.2 1009.0 32.0 2.2 2.4 3.2

[StPeteMike]

This is not good. Watch Kate. If she moves out faster than expected maybe Larry does not recurve.

We won’t know for a few days. Kate wasn’t suppose to dissipate as quickly as it was modeled previously.

Yeah a lot of the models a couple days ago had Kate getting a little bit stronger to minimal hurricane strength or just staying a mid-TS, not pretty much falling apart.

Even so, a strong Larry will likely break down the ridge and still end up OTS. Bermuda might still need to watch this though, think their chances have gone up the last 12 hours.

[grapealcoholic]

At this rate it'll be a hurricane tomorrow night

[RL3AO]

I suspect this will end up a little further west than forecasted but worst case still seems to be a Bermuda or Maritime Canada storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

BT now has 40 kt, and 00z got revised to 35 kt. First time using this name since 2003!

[Subtrop]

AL, 12, 2021090106, , BEST, 0, 122N, 239W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 50, 50, 1011, 180, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LARRY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 026,