2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1432662670356983816

That would explain why the GFS isn’t showing anything after Larry. We’ll have to focus on the Euro, CMC, and EPS ensembles for possible TCG; all have done great with Larry, and the ensembles suggest we could see another MDR system next week.

Another possible limiting factor for anything outside of the Gulf or WCar is that SSTs aren’t as warm as 2017 or 2020 were at this time. The eastern and central Caribbean are surprisingly “cool” for this time of year — they aren’t unfavorable, but it’s surprising to see most of the Caribbean lacking 29C SSTs. The MDR will probably get a bit of a warm-up as the heat from the Atlantic Niño shifts north.

It is probably the cold wake from Hurricane Ida.

[SFLcane]

Watch the Caribbean late September especially into October!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1432729905913946116

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1432740162287570946

[WiscoWx02]

The +AMO has returned, not that it was ever truly gone but it now looks fully engraved into the SSTA pattern. Seems to be the story of the last 4 years, with it making its full reappearance in August/September

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/MPWd0kL4y6A[/youtube]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_west_current.png

The +AMO has returned, not that it was ever truly gone but it now looks fully engraved into the SSTA pattern. Seems to be the story of the last 4 years, with it making its full reappearance in August/September

Those "cool MDR will make season inactive" comments earlier in May have aged like milk, I see.

[AlphaToOmega]

The ECMWF shows us going into Phase IV by September 20. Phase IV is the most favorable phase for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis.

[kevin]

Since there is a pretty good chance 2021 will also become an above average season, that would mean that we would have 6 above average (solely using the +126.1 ACE indicator) seasons in a row. That is the longest streak of active seasons since the records started in 1851. Here's an overview of the longest above average streaks. Note that this is thus only based on ACE, not the number of named storms.

Streak length - Years

5 = 2016/2017/2018/2019/2020 (and thus possibly including 2021)
3 = 2010/2011/2012, 2003/2004/2005
2 = 1998/1999, 1995/1996, 1950/1951, 1932/1933, 1915/1916, 1893/1994, 1886/1887

[Category5Kaiju]

I think another poster mentioned something like this earlier in this thread, but seeing at least 5 NSs in the month of September should be expected, as recent years have shown. With that being said, we could conceivably see Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, and Peter after Larry all in September, which would only leave us with 5 standard names for the rest of the season. Given a La Niña is expected to occur, I feel like seeing just 5 NSs in October and November is a bit small.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think another poster mentioned something like this earlier in this thread, but seeing at least 5 NSs in the month of September should be expected, as recent years have shown. With that being said, we could conceivably see Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, and Peter after Larry all in September, which would only leave us with 5 standard names for the rest of the season. Given a La Niña is expected to occur, I feel like seeing just 5 NSs in October and November is a bit small.

The most recent Septembers have been very active. I believe we could see at least seven storms in September, and that is supported by the favorable VP patterns forecasted for all of September. The GFS and GEFS ensembles show multiple tropical waves coming off Africa that could develop into tropical cyclones. They also show potential subtropical development off the East Coast, not to mention Invest 91L.

[SFLcane]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

[AlphaToOmega]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

What model is that?

[AutoPenalti]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

Were we just not discussing the upcoming MJO going through phase 4?

[aspen]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

I thought the MJO was going into Phase 4, which is still favorable for the Atlantic.

[AlphaToOmega]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

That looks pretty unrealistic, especially for a +AMO year such as 2021. West Africa is typically supposed to experience -VP anomalies in such years. The CMC also shows two tropical waves that could develop into tropical storms within the next 10 days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

What the heck? That pattern completely disobeys our common understanding of climo and why La Ninas favor late season activity. Not to mention during September doesn't MJO progression (especially suppressive) not really matter? Either way, I find it somewhat strange and incredible that we would not be able to see much activity in peak month September after Larry, it hardly makes any relative sense.

[AlphaToOmega]

For reference, this is what the CanSIPS shows

[WiscoWx02]

Here’s your reason why the models go quite after Larry. suppressed MJO state coming in. Will fight climo

What it ultimately means for the rest of the season who knows

https://i.postimg.cc/nczT1q5F/A153-BECC-EFE6-44-C6-94-DB-1-AA8-BCB57882.jpg

What the heck? That pattern completely disobeys our common understanding of climo and why La Ninas favor late season activity. Not to mention during September doesn't MJO progression (especially suppressive) not really matter? Either way, I find it somewhat strange and incredible that we would not be able to see much activity in peak month September after Larry, it hardly makes any relative sense.

I agree, I highly....HIGHLY doubt this will end up verifying and if it does....well that's just lucky. It's very hard to have nothing in September even when the background state isn't as favorable. Even in quite years like 2015, 2009, heck, even 2013, September was the most active part of the season. I think we will see a slow correction again with how the models propagate the MJO. Null phase for a while at least before coming back into the Atlantic, Africa and Indian Ocean.

[AutoPenalti]

For reference, this is what the CanSIPS shows
https://i.postimg.cc/5NN4BvC0/cansips-chi200-global-1.png

It suppresses EPAC activity for sure.

[WiscoWx02]

For reference, this is what the CanSIPS shows
https://i.postimg.cc/5NN4BvC0/cansips-chi200-global-1.png

It suppresses EPAC activity for sure.

That's about as favorable of a signal as you can get