ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheBigO]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but didn’t Irma start out a lot like this with similar early intensity and early recurve models?

I looked back at Irma models and they were much further west before recurving. The recurve signal is about as strong as it gets at the moment with Larry, thankfully.

Cool, thanks amigo. I’ll still keep a close eye on this one, just got a bad vibe, but fortunately since I don’t believe in magic I know the “bad vibe” is nothing more than just nerves.

[cycloneye]

Due to a more westerly initial
position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and
the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous
track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various
consensus models.

[vbhoutex]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but didn’t Irma start out a lot like this with similar early intensity and early recurve models?

I looked back at Irma models and they were much further west before recurving. The recurve signal is about as strong as it gets at the moment with Larry, thankfully.

Cool, thanks amigo. I’ll still keep a close eye on this one, just got a bad vibe, but fortunately since I don’t believe in magic I know the “bad vibe” is nothing more than just nerves.

Sometimes our nerves tell us things we need to listen to. So far all seems to point to Larry staying well away from any US landfall BUT I'm also seeing some chatter from somewhat reliable sources saying "don't place your bets yet!". Or as I say NEVER SAY NEVER! And no I am not -removed- anything!!

[kevin]

This beautiful color party is my attempt to overlay the NHC forecast on top of the MPI map. They use slightly different map projections so it'll never be precisely the same, but hopefully this gives an indication of Larry's future. Larry will be in high (cat 4) MPIs until Friday when he will spend about 24 - 48 hrs in lower (cat 3) MPIs. If Larry wants to intensify, these MPIs aren't sufficient to stop Larry from becoming a MH, but this should at least prevent Larry from immediately bombing to a cat 4 or something like that. However, around Sunday Larry will enter the cat 4 MPIs again and that's probably when it'll intensify further. However, one very important note to make is that just south of Larry's forecast, hurricane potential is way higher. If Larry tracks just 2 degrees south of its current forecast it could remain in cat 4 MPIs and even reach cat 5 waters. So basically, the further south Larry goes the stronger he'll probably get.

[AutoPenalti]

Seems to be a lot is riding on:

A) How strong the the CATL ridge is as Kate moves away
B) Influences on now ex-Tropical Ida creating an avenue closer to the coast
C) Current movement of Larry as it travels near 12N. NHC has this forecasted to move across 15N by Friday night.

Mark Sudduth talked about this scenario in his outlook discussion yesterday, he mentioned that the farther this gets to the west, the higher probability that this misses the weakness in the CATL and moves underneath the strengthening Bermuda ridge. As it looks like the ridge is fragmented into two pieces which is likely creating that avenue at 55W.

[Iceresistance]

I looked back at Irma models and they were much further west before recurving. The recurve signal is about as strong as it gets at the moment with Larry, thankfully.

Cool, thanks amigo. I’ll still keep a close eye on this one, just got a bad vibe, but fortunately since I don’t believe in magic I know the “bad vibe” is nothing more than just nerves.

Sometimes our nerves tell us things we need to listen to. So far all seems to point to Larry staying well away from any US landfall BUT I'm also seeing some chatter from somewhat reliable sources saying "don't place your bets yet!". Or as I say NEVER SAY NEVER! And no I am not -removed- anything!!

With Kate weaker, there is a higher chance that Larry will not be OTS storm since Kate would have weakened the ridge to where Larry can curve OTS, if Larry slows down or even curves in a southerly direction, it will allow the Bermuda ridge to build & force Larry into either the Lesser Antilles, The Bahamas, or the East Coast.

(I really hope that Larry goes OTS, and not pull an Irma or Florence since the models also underestimated the ridge with those 2 storms)

[Jr0d]

The Pacific had 2 annular hurricanes this season, looks like Larry has a good chance of going annular also.

The latest ICON is further west. Bermuda and Canada néed to watch this one.

[tolakram]

Correct me if I’m wrong here, but didn’t Irma start out a lot like this with similar early intensity and early recurve models?

Initial Irma models and the NHC forecast had Irma moving south of west for a while.

[Blown Away]

Not seeing any hints of a turn W after day 5 in the models or ensembles. NHC just keeps the day 3-5 NW turn farther W. A few more shifts maybe a NE Caribbean or Bermuda issue. No hints of CONUS potential yet.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye warming

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, this storm is coming together fast.

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

COD loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-capeverde-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19355.298828125&y=8338.4482421875&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Blown Away]

Wow, this storm is coming together fast.

Amazing, you can almost see the makings of that large eye the models have been showing.

[SouthernBreeze]

NHC showing a bit of northerly lift by tomorrow AM. I know its still way out there, but would be nice to see that begin to happen

[Kohlecane]

seems like 15N/45W is going to be the mark to watch

[weeniepatrol]

lol

[tolakram]

Eye-like feature alert!

[cycloneye]

Eye-like feature alert!

Some in twitterland say is a dry slot and other say eye.

[weeniepatrol]

It's definitely not an eye, but it would be nice so that its chances of recurving increase