2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SouthFLTropics]

Ugh… the CMC hates the Northern GOM coast. Late in the 00z run it decimates Louisiana and Mississippi. Slow moving storm.


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[weeniepatrol]

OK Euro real kneeslapper there

[Kohlecane]

The 06Z GFS after 246 says I'll take care of the MDR/CV systems

[AutoPenalti]

OK Euro real kneeslapper there

https://i.imgur.com/4zL9Rfg.png

Looks like the Euro ens has this coming off Africa by next week and depending on where Larry is, might even follow it OTS.

[SFLcane]

OK Euro real kneeslapper there

https://i.imgur.com/4zL9Rfg.png

Looks like the Euro ens has this coming off Africa by next week and depending on where Larry is, might even follow it OTS.

Not if the 500mb forecast from the euro and cfs verifies. We’ll have to watch these waves after Larry as a +NA0
will be establishing itself.

[SFLcane]

Abstract from Phil K 2 week forecast.

The ECMWF ensemble is fairly aggressive with another African easterly wave-spawned TC emerging off of Africa in about ten days, with potentially another system following in that one’s footsteps a few days later. The latest ensemble minimum MSLP output from ECMWF shows quite a few members with low pressure areas in fifteen days in the eastern tropical Atlantic

[AutoPenalti]

OK Euro real kneeslapper there

https://i.imgur.com/4zL9Rfg.png

Looks like the Euro ens has this coming off Africa by next week and depending on where Larry is, might even follow it OTS.

Not if the 500mb forecast from the euro and cfs verifies. We’ll have to watch these waves after Larry as a +NA0
will be establishing itself.

The Euro long range does show a fragmented but strengthening ridge so yeah it's possible this may be a MDR cruiser.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.

Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:

Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.

[aspen]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882996575935287296/index.png
Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:
https://i.ibb.co/Thn8gp2/ecens-2021-09-02-06-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.
https://i.ibb.co/JyjLgF4/28.gif

It’s coming off of at a rather high latitude, so it would be straddling the boundary between 27/26C SSTs until it gets past 45W. I don’t anticipate genesis and intensification at the same rate as Larry.

[chaser1]

OK Euro real kneeslapper there

https://i.imgur.com/4zL9Rfg.png

I would expect any storm even close to this well developed just coming off the African coastline to immediately track northwest and out to see (as in "see yaaaaa" later - alligator )
This suggests to me two things. One, that the MDR has proven that conditions are truly healthy out east and conditions are prolific enough where a few more storms will likely develop out east this month. Two, those that will form in the Eastern Atlantic will quite likely follow a similar track pattern as Larry. Hopefully this will give a temporary reprieve to most of the Caribbean and Antilles for a few weeks. With La Nina taking shape and having an increased influence with time, October might prove to be very interesting as Climo shifts development back to the west Atlantic basin.

[SFLcane]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882996575935287296/index.png
Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:
https://i.ibb.co/Thn8gp2/ecens-2021-09-02-06-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.
https://i.ibb.co/JyjLgF4/28.gif

It’s coming off of at a rather high latitude, so it would be straddling the boundary between 27/26C SSTs until it gets past 45W. I don’t anticipate genesis and intensification at the same rate as Larry.

Typical high bias with the Euro.

[AlphaToOmega]

The CMC has done very well with the geneses of Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry. For August, it has performed very well.
The operational CMC shows development from a wave after Invest 92L and from the Central American Gyre. By September 7, it shows development of Tropical Storm Mindy in the Bay of Campeche and Tropical Storm Nicholas in the MDR. Then on September 9, it shows development of Tropical Storm Odette in the MDR.

[LarryWx]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882996575935287296/index.png
Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:
https://i.ibb.co/Thn8gp2/ecens-2021-09-02-06-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.
https://i.ibb.co/JyjLgF4/28.gif

This is one I’ve been watching for two days as the EPS runs have been bullish on this since then (coming off Africa ~9/11). And now the 12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS at the end of the run from an AEW leaving Africa on 9/11. (consistent with the EPS runs I just noted). I can’t post it right now. But note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which is a warning signal as Yaakov (@jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO.

(I remain unworried about my namesake storm from a SE US perspective though Bermuda, Canada, and even New England should monitor).

[SFLcane]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882996575935287296/index.png
Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:
https://i.ibb.co/Thn8gp2/ecens-2021-09-02-06-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.
https://i.ibb.co/JyjLgF4/28.gif

This is one I’ve been watching for two days as the EPS runs have been bullish on this since then (coming off Africa ~9/11). And now the 12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS at the end of the run from an AEW leaving Africa on 9/11. (consistent with the EPS runs I just noted). I can’t post it right now. But note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which is a warning signal as Yaakov (@jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO.

(I remain unworried about my namesake storm from a SE US perspective though Bermuda, Canada, and even New England should monitor).

[Category5Kaiju]

Being an individual whose first name is actually Nicholas, I can't wait to see what TS Nicholas will be born out of. The Gulf system, or the MDR system after Larry?

[sma10]

Interesting that the usually bearish Ukmet is developing the wave behind 92L, actually forming just south of the CV Islands late in the weekend. This is the same feature that the CMC has wandering around just north of PR by D10

[LarryWx]

Interesting that the usually bearish Ukmet is developing the wave behind 92L, actually forming just south of the CV Islands late in the weekend. This is the same feature that the CMC has wandering around just north of PR by D10

Here is the 0Z UKMET (keeps it weak):


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 20.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2021 84 13.7N 22.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 07.09.2021 96 14.5N 24.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 07.09.2021 108 15.1N 27.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 08.09.2021 120 15.4N 29.8W 1010 28
1200UTC 08.09.2021 132 15.6N 32.7W 1010 26
0000UTC 09.09.2021 144 16.0N 35.9W 1011 26

[IcyTundra]

GFS not showing anything after Larry I'm not buying it to be honest.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS not showing anything after Larry I'm not buying it to be honest.

and just like that, season is over boys. (according to the gfs)

[LarryWx]

06z Euro with another TC developing right off Africa at the end of the run.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/882996575935287296/index.png
Sure enough there is a decent EPS signal:
https://i.ibb.co/Thn8gp2/ecens-2021-09-02-06-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
Given that there is a potent CCKW expected to pass over Africa over the next week I would expect to see more models following suit on picking up more activity.
https://i.ibb.co/JyjLgF4/28.gif

This is one I’ve been watching for two days as the EPS runs have been bullish on this since then (coming off Africa ~9/11). And now the 12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS at the end of the run from an AEW leaving Africa on 9/11. (consistent with the EPS runs I just noted). I can’t post it right now. But note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which is a warning signal as Yaakov (@jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO.

(I remain unworried about my namesake storm from a SE US perspective though Bermuda, Canada, and even New England should monitor).

Consistent with the above 12Z Euro and the run before that, the 0Z Euro still has a TS from an AEW coming off Africa on 9/11 with a strong high to its NNW:



End of run: