ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

An eyewall is trying to close off on a 20z microwave pass, but that massive band to the south seems to be a problem.

[cycloneye]

Up to 75 kt.

AL, 12, 2021090300, , BEST, 0, 139N, 366W, 75, 985, HU

[Iceresistance]

Larry may have jogged SW in the last few frames . . .

[beoumont]

Larry may have jogged SW in the last few frames . . .

tricoidal motion of a banded eye?

[kevin]

Looks like convection is trying to wrap around the eye, which maybe also tries to clear out on IR (not sure about that last part though). Raw T's also shot up from 3.9 to 5.9, but it'll probably fluctuate wildly as Larry continues to organize.

[kevin]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 030831
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[kevin]

Shrimp alert:

[aspen]

Getting better. That band to the south still won't die, but it appears that a normal-sized eye is forming around 14.5N.

[Kohlecane]

Still trying to grasp my mind around how it looks now, and seeing it progress to a potential Annular
building Impressive ULAC and looks to me some vht's showing up Major on the way

[Nimbus]

Upper level lows at -53 and -67.
Some days you are the outflow channel, some days you are the shear.

[aspen]

Still a messy, band-dominated structure on a 9z microwave pass. We won’t get RI until this sorts itself out.

[cycloneye]

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 03/1130Z

C. 14.6N

D. 39.8W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.0 BASED ON THE
EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE BOTH EQUAL TO 4.5 BASED ON
A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[cheezyWXguy]

Still a messy, band-dominated structure on a 9z microwave pass. We won’t get RI until this sorts itself out.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al12/amsusr89/2021al12_amsusr89_202109030901.gif

Making slow progress but it’s definitely going to be a while. At least now we are seeing some reds in the core.

[Teban54]

May be temporary, but it does seem like the robust outer band to the south is finally waning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, Cat 2 by 11am. Looking great!

[kevin]

Looks like the southern band has finally given up. No RI yet, but I agree with Hypercane_Kyle that this would at least warrant its current 80 kt intensity and perhaps a bump to 85 kt at 11am. However, I can imagine that NHC won't do the upgrade yet since it's still pretty weak according to Dvorak (CI# 4.1). But I do expect it to shoot up once an eye appears (raw T# was briefly 5.9 a few hours ago when the eye seemed to pop out so that goes to show how quickly ADT can go up when the eye clears).

[aspen]

The eye has finally appeared but it'll be covered up by overshooting cloud tops soon.

[kevin]

The eye has finally appeared but it'll be covered up by overshooting cloud tops soon.
https://i.imgur.com/2Q20Skj.jpg

That went fast, but indeed it'll probably be covered up by clouds soon. Still it's a clear sign that it's intensifying so I think they will pull the cat 2 trigger soon. Also while TS winds don't make it all the way from the bottom to the top of the system yet, just look at how huge it is. From the southern band to the northern band is about 10 degrees of latitude or 690 miles (1100 km).

[Shell Mound]

Couldn't Larry pass through Herbert Box #1? Yesterday's 18Z EPS members were suggestive.

[ElectricStorm]

No Cat 2 yet

HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021
1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.