What will Ida's peak and landfall intensities be in TCR?

[Teban54]

I'm seeing some debates in the Ida thread about its intensity, so I figured a poll/thread to collect and discuss all the observations we have would be nice (just like last year's poll on whether Laura was a Cat 5). Possible questions include whether observations support a higher intensity than the operationally assessed 130 kt at peak, and whether Ida weakened slightly at landfall due to EWRC or other factors.

Options:
- Peak 125 kt or lower, landfall 125 kt or lower
- Peak 130 kt, landfall 125 kt or lower
- Peak 130 kt, landfall 130 kt (Operational)
- Peak 135 kt, landfall 125 kt or lower
- Peak 135 kt, landfall 130 kt
- Peak 135 kt, landfall 135 kt
- Peak 140 kt, landfall 125 kt or lower
- Peak 140 kt, landfall 130 kt
- Peak 140 kt, landfall 135 kt
- Peak 140 kt, landfall 140 kt
- Others (comments)

[kevin]

I think based on ground measurements, damage reports and the dropsonde they might go to 135 kt peak and 130 kt at landfall. But I have difficulty seeing the NHC going for 140 kt since recon planes made dozens of passes and never found cat 5 FL winds or unflagged cat 5 SFMR. Still, those 5 kts don't really matter for the people affected, 130, 135, 140, it's all extremely destructive.

[CyclonicFury]

Peak: 130 kt, 929 mb

Landfall: 130 kt, 930 mb

[aspen]

Peak: 135 kt and 929mb

Landfall: 125 or 130 kt, 930mb

[Extratropical94]

130/929 peak, 125 (or even 120)/930 landfall

[ElectricStorm]

I think landfall will be the same but they might upgrade the peak to 135kts. I'm not putting any stock into that ship report right now since no data supported a Cat 5, not even FL winds from recon.

Peak 130-135kts/929mb
Landfall 130kts/930mb

[tolakram]

poll created, re-votes allowed

[Blinhart]

Peak 140 Kts - 927 mb
Landfall 130 Kts - 933 mb

[Ubuntwo]

I'm guessing they raise peak to 135kt and might bump landfall down to 125kt.

[Stormybajan]

Definitely 135 kts 929 mb peak, 130 kts 930 mb landfall...The winds look well verified on land which is usually not the case with these extremely strong hurricanes

[CrazyC83]

My opinion:
Peak 135 kt / 929 mb (at 1200Z August 29).
Landfall 130 kt / 931 mb (would have said 125 kt but the surface report justifies the operational).

[wxman57]

I don't see my choice there. I'd say peak 135 kts but 125 kts at landfall. It was clearly starting an eyewall replacement cycle near landfall, which always results in weakening.

[Ptarmigan]

Peak at 135 knots. Landfall at 130 knots.

[Shell Mound]

The observations at Port Fourchon were recorded at 17:50 UTC. Given that Ida made landfall at 16:55 UTC, the observations were recorded in the southeastern eyewall, around 2:04 on this NEXRAD loop. Both the 130-kt and 150-kt readings at Port Fourchon were apparently gusts and recorded on a mast at an elevation of ~18 m. Reducing both gusts to sustained one-minute values at 10 m would suggest MSW of about ~105 kt (Category 3) during the passage of the southeastern eyewall. Notably, the eye cooled and lightning decreased significantly just before landfall, suggestive of weakening. A personal weather station near Port Fourchon measured 936.4 mb, coincident with wind of 17 kt, inside the RMW, suggesting a possible central pressure of 933 mb at LF, up from 929 mb measured by reconnaissance much earlier. Given all these factors, Ida was likely on the order of 115–120 kt at LF. The peak was likely 130 kt/929 mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

130 knot peak, 130 knot landfall. Unchanged from the operational, IMO. Was well assessed.

[FireRat]

135 kt peak, 130 kt landfall. The awesome satellite presentation leading up to landfall could warrant a 5kt upgrade, but the ground obs support the 130 kt landfall too, so this might be the more reasonable TCR outcome for Ida IMO

[Shell Mound]

135 kt peak, 130 kt landfall. The awesome satellite presentation leading up to landfall could warrant a 5kt upgrade, but the ground obs support the 130 kt landfall too, so this might be the more reasonable TCR outcome for Ida IMO

The observations from Port Fourchon were elevated gusts (see above).

[Ubuntwo]

The observations at Port Fourchon were recorded at 17:50 UTC. Given that Ida made landfall at 16:55 UTC, the observations were recorded in the southeastern eyewall, around 2:04 on this NEXRAD loop. Both the 130-kt and 150-kt readings at Port Fourchon were apparently gusts and recorded on a mast at an elevation of ~18 m. Reducing both gusts to sustained one-minute values at 10 m would suggest MSW of about ~105 kt (Category 3) during the passage of the southeastern eyewall. Notably, the eye cooled and lightning decreased significantly just before landfall, suggestive of weakening. A personal weather station near Port Fourchon measured 936.4 mb, coincident with wind of 17 kt, inside the RMW, suggesting a possible central pressure of 933 mb at LF, up from 929 mb measured by reconnaissance much earlier. Given all these factors, Ida was likely on the order of 115–120 kt at LF. The peak was likely 130 kt/929 mb.

G149kt is a rare observation in even the most intense TCs. Considering it was outside the RMW and typical under sampling of 10% in landfalling cyclones, this observation in a vacuum supports 115kt which lines up with recon. Port Fourchon clearly did not see the worst wind as well. Leeville, Cocodrie and eastern Elmer’s island display mid-grade category 4 damage that I would compare to the Callaway area after Michael. It’s also possible that maximum winds increased after the first landfall as Ida passed back over water. All this taken together I don’t see the NHC dipping below 120kt.