aspen wrote:Hammy wrote:Recent CFS runs seem to indicate a quiet period, possibly little to nothing new forming for the rest of early to mid-September, at least over the Atlantic ocean itself--something it's been hinting at since July (unfortunately the GoM/Caribbean maps are still having issues loading) but it's showing another burst of activity the last third of September, and continues to show the MDR producing storms into October, with varying intensity from run to run.
While the CFS did sniff out Ida a month in advance, it either missed or overhyped many other systems. What has remained constant over the last several weeks is the potential for at least one more big MDR long-tracker in September after Larry. Weaker systems, or those in the GoM/Caribbean, are likely being missed, although the most recent CFS run does suggest there could be 2 weaker MDR systems in September alongside a second long-tracker.
I think part of what happened, and it showed up on the shorter range models as well, that the system behind Larry simply didn't find favorable conditions--in part because of Larry itself--that the models had otherwise shown.
As far as the Gulf and western Caribbean their site is buggy so I don't have access to those maps on a consistent enough basis to see any trends, so I'm going purely on the MDR and central/western Atlantic.
The rainfall maps do seem to verify what the extended range surface maps show, that there could be a lull in new storms until after the 15th with a second peak after that, something that doesn't seem uncommon in months with active Augusts.
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