Mediterranean TCRs

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Hi!
I made this topic to put here my TCRs to Mediterranean systems.

I finised Otilie's report, which is available here: http://zivipotty.hu/2018_otilie.pdf (or from here if that link don't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )
This was the firs cyclone last year that formed over the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Reports from Zorbas and Numa (2017) also will be coming within some weeks.

[djones65]

Very, very nice V&G fan!!!
You did a fantastic job! And I appreciated the graphics.
I look forward to your future reports.
Well done!

[GSBHurricane]

One word. Wow. Just wow.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Report from TS Zorbas is done: http://zivipotty.hu/2018_zorbas.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

[djones65]

Excellent report once again!
However, based on the surface reports you provided along with the satellite imagery... I can make a case that Zorbas may have actually been a hurricane just as it made landfall.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I finished Ianos's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_ianos.pdf (or from here if the link not working: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)
I put the peak intensity to 75 kt which is maybe a bit conservative, but based on the 984 hPa pressure data at the landfall I think that the 85 kt 1-min wind overrepresented the real intensity. I saw on Twitter that a Greek report will come out in the next weeks/mounths which included more data, I am waiting it excited.

And based on Ianos, I now think more possible that Zorbas in 2018 also briefly reached the hurricane intensity. The ASCAT measured 50 kt maximum wind a few hours before the landfall like in this case.

[DanieleItalyRm]

I really admire your analysies on the Mediterranean cyclones Herincs David. Especially the tables with the various phases and intensity peaks. I wonder if you will do a similar job with 03M Andira (Elaina) on the eastern Mediterranean on this past December.
Daniele

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I really admire your analysies on the Mediterranean cyclones Herincs David. Especially the tables with the various phases and intensity peaks. I wonder if you will do a similar job with 03M Andira (Elaina) on the eastern Mediterranean on this past December.
Daniele

Thanks!
I will have a bit harder work with Andira because much less data was available associated with it than with Ianos, but I try to do an acceptable estimation.

But I'm currently working on Detlef's (2019) report, I will likely finish it in a week.

[DanieleItalyRm]

I really admire your analysies on the Mediterranean cyclones Herincs David. Especially the tables with the various phases and intensity peaks. I wonder if you will do a similar job with 03M Andira (Elaina) on the eastern Mediterranean on this past December.
Daniele

Thanks!
I will have a bit harder work with Andira because much less data was available associated with it than with Ianos, but I try to do an acceptable estimation.

But I'm currently working on Detlef's (2019) report, I will likely finish it in a week.

In the Future it would be fantastic of you a similar work for the main Mediterranean TC of the past (even if I understand you will find much less data) or at least a consistent track with the various phases and base on Dvoark technique:

CLICK on Vis to loop Sat:

Oct.1996
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Jan.1995
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Dec.1985
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Sept.1983
http://meteorologia.uib.eu/medicanes/me ... icane.html

Jan.1982

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It lasted a few days longer, but here is the report from Detlef: http://zivipotty.hu/2019_detlef.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)
According to the upper level environment, it remained rather subtropical despite the well-defined structure just before the landfall.

[DanieleItalyRm]

It lasted a few days longer, but here is the report from Detlef: http://zivipotty.hu/2019_detlef.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)
According to the upper level environment, it remained rather subtropical despite the well-defined structure just before the landfall.

Good Job Hérincs. I Agree with you. In the end I also concluded that Detlef has not completed a tropical transition (also because it was too close to landfall). The system was still a little connected to the front and to the infrared the convective bands around the eye were more "ironed" than those of a real CDO. For this reasons Detlef it is more suitable as a Subtropical. Similarly like Qendresa, although Qendresa had perhaps for a few hours attained a tropical status close to eastern Sicily.
I hope you also have in mind the cyclone Numa from November 2017. I am sure that Numa was completely Tropical during the night between November 17th and 18th.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

After 2 years, Numa is finally done.
http://zivipotty.hu/2017_numa.pdf (or from here, if the lint doesn't work: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)

[DanieleItalyRm]

Thanks.
Your approach to Mediterranean cyclones is the only coherent one in existence, with extremely detailed data.
I am curious to see the detail of 03M on the eastern Mediterranean, I believe it was similar to Numa in intensity.
Daniele

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Thanks.
Your approach to Mediterranean cyclones is the only coherent one in existence, with extremely detailed data.
I am curious to see the detail of 03M on the eastern Mediterranean, I believe it was similar to Numa in intensity.
Daniele

Thanks Daniele!

03M/Andira will be the next report, I've already started to work on them. I put the peak intensity to 55 kt, but based on the satellite and radar appearance it could be a little stronger. Unfortunately I didn't found direct land or ship measurements from its tropical phase near the center.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Andira's report is done.
http://zivipotty.hu/2020_andira.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)

[MHC Tracking]

Nice job

[AJC3]

Andira's report is done.
http://zivipotty.hu/2020_andira.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html)

Another EXCELLENT write-up as usual, Dávid. Well worth the read!

[DanieleItalyRm]

So far we have 6 ratings from agencies.
Short experimental passages SAB-NOAA:
01M-2011 (Rolf)
90M-2016 (Trixie)
Met Office:
01M-2018 (Zorbas)
01M-2020 (Ianos)
02M-2020 (Masinissa)
03M-2020 (Andira)
Can you confirm it Dàvid?

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

So far we have 6 ratings from agencies.
Short experimental passages SAB-NOAA:
01M-2011 (Rolf)
90M-2016 (Trixie)
Met Office:
01M-2018 (Zorbas)
01M-2020 (Ianos)
02M-2020 (Masinissa)
03M-2020 (Andira)
Can you confirm it Dàvid?

Yes, and the Met Office also classified the weak (sub)tropical cyclone (Scott) near Egypt in 2019. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/tracks/nhem19/01m.gif
In addition, Ianos was classified by the CIMSS too (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atms/archive/2020/202001M.html) and in this summary also referred to the cyclone as a hurricane: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/cj82k728n/r781x571v/7h14bc86h/wwcb3820.pdf?fbclid=IwAR26GaCLNdOcq6Q-usZ7MLZF4n1DLZ-v5MW5mPYmiP0ugMtMyj51jADaAdA#page=27

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I finished Masinissa's report: http://zivipotty.hu/2020_masinissa.pdf (or from here: http://zivipotty.hu/tcr.html )

Although it looked quite tropical before the landfall, according to the reanalysis it remained strongly connected with the upper level trough (and widespread, strong potential vorticity anomaly) over it, in addition satellite images and wind measurements also suggested some connection with the remaining frontal areas around the small core too. So based on these I left it as subtropical in its entire lifetime.