ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Amazing how models can predict that a hurricane will have an annular structure days in advance.

[SconnieCane]

TS wind probabilities for Bermuda ticking upwards with each advisory. Still looks like the core *should* miss them to the east but it'll be close, especially with how large of a cyclone this is/will be.

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity 125 kts.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

[RL3AO]

TS wind probabilities for Bermuda ticking upwards with each advisory. Still looks like the core *should* miss them to the east but it'll be close, especially with how large of a cyclone this is/will be.

5 days out and Bermuda is in the cone. Probably too early to say it "should" miss them.

[cycloneye]

Yes!!! Recon for Tuesday morning.

FIX HURRICANE LARRY AT 07/1200Z NEAR
23.8N 56.4W.

Also Nasa DC-8 flys today and Gonzo on Sunday.

A. THE NASA 817 DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8.25-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
TODAY AROUND HURRICANE LARRY BETWEEN 30,000 AND 40,000 FT,
DEPARTING TISX AT 04/1620Z.
B. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY A 7.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
TOMORROW AROUND LARRY BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT, DEPARTING
TISX AT 05/0900Z.

[aspen]

Yes!!! Recon for Tuesday morning.

FIX HURRICANE LARRY AT 07/1200Z NEAR
23.8N 56.4W.

Also Nasa DC-8 flys today and Gonzo on Sunday.

A. THE NASA 817 DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8.25-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
TODAY AROUND HURRICANE LARRY BETWEEN 30,000 AND 40,000 FT,
DEPARTING TISX AT 04/1620Z.
B. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY A 7.5-HOUR RESEARCH MISSION
TOMORROW AROUND LARRY BETWEEN 41,000 AND 45,000 FT, DEPARTING
TISX AT 05/0900Z.

Hopefully that isn’t too late to catch Larry’s peak intensity, but the low-level mission and two upper-level missions will still be very important for determining whether or not it’ll directly impact Bermuda. If the ridge is weak enough, Larry could miss the island.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Amazing how models can predict that a hurricane will have an annular structure days in advance.

Especially considering annular hurricanes weren't really well known or heard of until the late 90s/early 2000s. It's amazing how we only really discovered them just 20 years ago

[Kazmit]

Already a beautiful satellite presentation today. Once it gets stronger it could rival Isabel.

[aspen]

12z microwave pass shows a developing annular eyewall. Still a weak spot with a band or two in the southern half.

[Ubuntwo]

Wow!

[Woofde]

Wow!

Larry is definitely starting to become some tropical eye candy. This should be a fun one to watch.

I'm impressed that the HWRF was so accurate with its prediction of a large annular Cane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This isn't annular quite yet as there is still some evidence of a banding structure. Annular hurricanes have a large eye completely surrounded by symmetrical intense convection that lacks any banding features. It's close, but not quite there

[Sciencerocks]

[ThetaE]

12z microwave pass shows a developing annular eyewall. Still a weak spot with a band or two in the southern half.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al12/amsusr89/2021al12_amsusr89_202109041208.gif

It'll be interesting to see how this remnant banding feature evolves. It's pretty clear it's still persisting on IR satellite (for now), but I wonder if it will die off or merge in some fashion with the eyewall. If it does persist, I don't think Larry will technically qualify as an annular hurricane.

[Blown Away]

Models don’t really show that perfect doughnut eye like Pacific Linda had, but still very impressive...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow This storm is beautiful.

[Yellow Evan]

Still T5.0. Not convinced this is as strong as the NHC or well Papin says tbh.

[kevin]

What a gorgeous looking hurricane and it will become even nicer when Larry probably becomes annular tomorrow with a fully cleared out eye.

[cycloneye]

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 04/1730Z

C. 17.0N

D. 46.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED LG COLD
OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 IS
MADE TO THE DT. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 6.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT AND IS ALSO
EQUAL TO 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Yellow Evan]

A. 12L (LARRY)

B. 04/1730Z

C. 17.0N

D. 46.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED LG COLD
OVERCAST MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 5.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 IS
MADE TO THE DT. THE MET IS EQUAL TO 6.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT
TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT AGREES WITH THE DT AND IS ALSO
EQUAL TO 5.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

I don’t have a ruler on me but don’t think it’s embedded in LG.