2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[GCANE]

Here's the Bad-Boy Wave 5 days out.
Going to be picking up more high TPW air than what Ida did.

poems for your friend

[Kohlecane]

Also the set up on the 6z GFS has this stall over E TX for almost 48 hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Last few runs of the GFS show a much more active Atlantic in the long range.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z gfs is not going to be pretty for the western gulf…

[gatorcane]

Yep another GFS threat in the GOM per the GFS. Another think to look at is the gigantic mid-level low over the NE Atlantic which opens the door for quick recurves of systems moving off of Africa. The GFS may be overdoing it a bit though:

[gatorcane]

And if you go out further, huge weakness over the North Atlantic, looks like a Bermuda low to me:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely something to keep an eye on. Not liking how active the western Caribbean seems to be this season.

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS

[Category5Kaiju]

It's a bit dubious imho, but does the 12z GFS show 91L forming or not? Because if no, then that beast of a storm hitting Texas would be Mindy. But if 91L does develop, then that monster would be Nicholas.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS

From 150 hours to 300 hours below:

[IcyTundra]

It's a bit dubious imho, but does the 12z GFS show 91L forming or not? Because if no, then that beast of a storm hitting Texas would be Mindy. But if 91L does develop, then that monster would be Nicholas.

12Z GFS briefly develops 91L just off the coast of Mississippi/Alabama.

[Category5Kaiju]

That would be insane, for the 12z GFS to pan out. 6 major CONUS Gulf landfalls in 5 years, with what looks to be a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 hitting Texas 4 years after Harvey. Whatever name is assigned to that storm, should it happen, will almost certainly be retired.

[Wampadawg]

That would be insane, for the 12z GFS to pan out. 6 major CONUS Gulf landfalls in 5 years, with what looks to be a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 hitting Texas 4 years after Harvey. Whatever name is assigned to that storm, should it happen, will almost certainly be retired.

Which wave is this to come from?

[Category5Kaiju]

That would be insane, for the 12z GFS to pan out. 6 major CONUS Gulf landfalls in 5 years, with what looks to be a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 hitting Texas 4 years after Harvey. Whatever name is assigned to that storm, should it happen, will almost certainly be retired.

Which wave is this to come from?

Not entirely sure, but the GFS sure does seem to like to blow it up in the GoM around next week. Could be a sleeper wave, although I have not personally seen ensembles extremely crazy on this system, so whether it is a ghost storm or the GFS actually onto something remains to be seen.

[Kohlecane]

That would be insane, for the 12z GFS to pan out. 6 major CONUS Gulf landfalls in 5 years, with what looks to be a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 hitting Texas 4 years after Harvey. Whatever name is assigned to that storm, should it happen, will almost certainly be retired.

Which wave is this to come from?

Not entirely sure, but the GFS sure does seem to like to blow it up in the GoM around next week. Could be a sleeper wave, although I have not personally seen ensembles extremely crazy on this system, so whether it is a ghost storm or the GFS actually onto something remains to be seen.

It's explained In these tweets that I pulled from Pg. 62 of this thread.
https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433798234196094979

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1433800123444776966

[IcyTundra]

The GFS shows the wave developing in 6 days in the W Carribean not that far out. I think the CMC shows the same wave developing but takes into Mexico.

[GCANE]

A bigger punch on each run of the GFS

[Cpv17]

The GFS shows the wave developing in 6 days in the W Carribean not that far out. I think the CMC shows the same wave developing but takes into Mexico.

The GEFS doesn’t have much support for this and the Euro op doesn’t either. We’ll see what the EPS shows here shortly but for now I’m not concerned till there’s more model support.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS shows the wave developing in 6 days in the W Carribean not that far out. I think the CMC shows the same wave developing but takes into Mexico.

The GEFS doesn’t have much support for this and the Euro op doesn’t either. We’ll see what the EPS shows here shortly but for now I’m not concerned till there’s more model support.

I agree; a basic comparison I am using is that these ensembles continously displayed a potent signal for future Ida, which obviously went on to become a 150 mph Gulf monster in the end. So far such ensembles do not have such a strong signal for whatever the GFS is wanting to display ruin the Texas coastline (and gosh I really hope that does not happen at all as the Gulf certainly needs a break from the onslaught of major hurricanes in recent years, let alone this year already). We perhaps could get a tropical storm, but in my honest opinion, it's a wait and see for now. Now if we do end up with another major hurricane strike on the CONUS Gulf nearly 2-3 weeks after Ida (and perhaps even better that storm gets named "Nicholas" and shares my first name in common)...then I'll just eat all of my old shoes in my closet

[IcyTundra]

I think with development only being 6-7 days out according to the GFS there is a good chance this isn’t a ghost storm. For the last few days I believe the GFS has been showing this getting buried in Central America or the Bay of Campeche. The 6Z and 12Z GFS runs were the first GFS runs to show this threatening the NW Gulf in several days as the GFS had a couple runs earlier in the week that showed this wave developing and getting into the gulf. Despite the lack of strong ensemble support I think there is a good chance this develops, but I have no idea where it would go from there.