
WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WPAC: CONSON - Post-Tropical
95W.INVEST
95W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.131E

Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:26 pm, edited 9 times in total.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
The second system the Euro ensemble showed almost 3 days ago that competes with 94W.




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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
The Canadian also develops this system but stronger than 94W
Well, this one has more fuel at its disposal

95W INVEST 210905 0600 11.3N 130.7E WPAC 15 1010

Well, this one has more fuel at its disposal

95W INVEST 210905 0600 11.3N 130.7E WPAC 15 1010

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C)
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C)
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 95W
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 11N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W
WWJP25 RJTD 051800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
WARNING AND SUMMARY 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 95W

WTPN21 PGTW 052300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 127.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 453 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052126Z SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST, LOW VWS, AND DUAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A
TUTT CELL 5 DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR BALER, PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 84, CROSS LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 96. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED FURTHER BY OUTFLOW FROM ANOTHER
CYCLONE WEST OF GUAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT, WILL FUEL
WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS BY TAU 72; AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION, MOSTLY, WILL REDUCE IT TO 40 KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE
SCS. THE WARM WATER MAY AID TO RE-INTENSIFY IT BACK TO 45 KTS BY TAU
120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE HANDFUL OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE IMPACT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 127.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 453 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION AND
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052126Z SCATTEROMETRY BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
30-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN ARC OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SST, LOW VWS, AND DUAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM A
TUTT CELL 5 DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY ON
ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR BALER, PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 84, CROSS LUZON, THEN EXIT INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 96. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, TEMPERED FURTHER BY OUTFLOW FROM ANOTHER
CYCLONE WEST OF GUAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT, WILL FUEL
WEAK INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 45KTS BY TAU 72; AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION, MOSTLY, WILL REDUCE IT TO 40 KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE
SCS. THE WARM WATER MAY AID TO RE-INTENSIFY IT BACK TO 45 KTS BY TAU
120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: THE HANDFUL OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING CYCLONE COUPLED WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE IMPACT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

Welp guess we have a moderate tropical storm. Hopefully an agency will notice.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
look like it's not gaining latitude - landfall in Samar cannot be ruled out


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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
mrbagyo wrote:look like it's not gaining latitude - landfall in Samar cannot be ruled out
https://i.imgur.com/o8fBebb.gif
Sure looks like it, and definitely not just a tropical depression.
I think the models kinda dropped the ball with this, for whatever reason that is, but I suspect it's the close proximity of 2 circulations (18W and future 19W). Models tend to not resolve that properly.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
Just as I expected, GFS comes up with a brand new solution, with 18W being the dominant storm and 94W getting sucked into the stronger circulation of the former.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
somebody wakeup people of JMA and PAGASA - this is not a 30 knot TD




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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
HWRF likes 18W




Last edited by mrbagyo on Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
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- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
TXPQ21 KNES 060610
TCSWNP
A. 18W (NONAME)
B. 06/0530Z
C. 10.7N
D. 126.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET WAS SET TO
1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 3.5 WHICH
ALLOWS FOR THE BREAKING OF CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/0444Z 10.7N 127.0E AMSR2
...TUGGLE
TCSWNP
A. 18W (NONAME)
B. 06/0530Z
C. 10.7N
D. 126.9E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T3.5/3.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. 10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET WAS SET TO
1.5 AND PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT OF 3.5 WHICH
ALLOWS FOR THE BREAKING OF CONSTRAINTS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
06/0444Z 10.7N 127.0E AMSR2
...TUGGLE
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W
TPPN10 PGTW 060615
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 06/0540Z
C. 10.74N
D. 126.94E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 06/0540Z
C. 10.74N
D. 126.94E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .55
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS
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