2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Clearcloudz
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1281 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:31 pm

18Z GEFS Run hours 150 to 300 1 run of many more to come. Cheers!

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1282 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:41 pm

00Z GFS can never quite get the potential W Carribean storm going weak TS into TX would be a rain maker.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1283 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:48 pm

IcyTundra wrote:00Z GFS can never quite get the potential W Carribean storm going weak TS into TX would be a rain maker.

https://i.imgur.com/we4aEIB.gif


I don't believe this scenario more runs to come but as we move into a phase 3 MJO a strong system is coming somewhere along the gulf coast.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1284 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 04, 2021 11:52 pm

00Z CMC is very strange

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1285 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Sep 05, 2021 1:57 am

Certified euro moment

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1286 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 05, 2021 2:57 am

0Z EPS is still very active in the MDR late in the run/something to watch for late Sept:

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H5:

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1287 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 05, 2021 4:15 am

After Larry, the EPS ensembles show absolutely nothing in the MDR through September 15. I think the main threat to the U.S. will come in October.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1288 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:17 am

Shell Mound wrote:After Larry, the EPS ensembles show absolutely nothing in the MDR through September 15. I think the main threat to the U.S. will come in October.


Interestingly enough, I checked what the same ensembles had for the EPAC and it pretty much showed nothing either there, maybe a very weak cyclone near the end of this week otherwise. I wonder why those ensembles are showing both basins to be quiet through this timeframe (peak September of all times too), something doesn't make sense in my honest opinion if you ask me.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1289 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 05, 2021 7:37 am

There’s some EPS and GEFS ensemble support for a MDR system or two in the next ten days. The first wave the Euro likes might come off at a high latitude, but a second on September 15th might have better luck. We could get another high-ACE long tracker once the ridge builds back in. Also, since it’s peak season, we’ll need to watch out for any sleeper waves that develop further west.

Edit: the 00z GFS showed the same September 13-15th wave develop like the Euro, but the 06z run dropped it.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1290 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:01 am

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1291 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 05, 2021 8:05 am

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1292 Postby jconsor » Sun Sep 05, 2021 9:23 am

About potential W Carib/W Gulf system GEFS has been showing late this week into this weekend...

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1434522453410291714


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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1293 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:26 am

I’m thinking the WCar/Gulf system could either be a quick spin-up in the BoC, or an Earl ‘16/Franklin ‘17 repeat. Ridging looks quite strong over the central US when the disturbance is in the BoC. This is 5-8 days out so there’s lots of time to watch for changes.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1294 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:37 am

aspen wrote:I’m thinking the WCar/Gulf system could either be a quick spin-up in the BoC, or an Earl ‘16/Franklin ‘17 repeat. Ridging looks quite strong over the central US when the disturbance is in the BoC. This is 5-8 days out so there’s lots of time to watch for changes.

It really depends which center takes over, and the 12z gfs shows 3 areas of vorticity. Initially it’s very similar to ida’s formation where there is a gyre center sw and wave axis ne. It favors the wave axis, but then splits it in 2 and favors the southern one. Given the gfs’s tendency to favor gyres, I am inclined to lean toward the northernmost center
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1295 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 am


Any potential TC in the MDR would likely need to form on or before 13 September to hit the CONUS, given that it would take a week to cross, along with the fact that very few CV cyclones have hit the CONUS after 20 September. I think CV threats to the CONUS are likely finished and that we need to watch the Caribbean in October. Of course, the Islands still need to watch CV threats through late September.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1296 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:44 am

So the GFS decides to drop any discernible quick development of 91L but sure loves to intensify and stall that WCAR-born storm behind it…hmm…
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1297 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:44 am

Looks like a quite a progressive pattern across North America and the Atlantic, certainly no widespread expansive ridges over the eastern CONUS or SE Canada on this run of the GFS. Looks more like a fall pattern:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1298 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:45 am

Shell Mound wrote:

Any potential TC in the MDR would likely need to form on or before 13 September to hit the CONUS.

That’s not how climatology works. Climatology is an averaging of individual anomalies to use the past to serve as a general indicator, it does not dictate the future
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1299 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:47 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:

Any potential TC in the MDR would likely need to form on or before 13 September to hit the CONUS.

That’s not how climatology works. Climatology is an averaging of individual anomalies to use the past to serve as a general indicator, it does not dictate the future

"Likely" is based on climatological averages. :wink:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1300 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:49 am

Shell Mound wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Any potential TC in the MDR would likely need to form on or before 13 September to hit the CONUS.

That’s not how climatology works. Climatology is an averaging of individual anomalies to use the past to serve as a general indicator, it does not dictate the future

"Likely" is based on climatological averages. :wink:

I must have misread, I could have sworn your post said “needs to form”, not “would likely need to form”.
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