ATL: MINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Coaster]

Request providing the particular Link in Global Models thread that GCANE was referring to.

Link to p. 62 in Global Models:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121679&start=1220

TampaBayBee

Thanks for providing the link.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula are associated with a surface
trough and an upper-level disturbance. Locally heavy rains are
likely to continue today over that area. The system is forecast to
move northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today,
then move slowly northward or northeastward over the western or
central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are only expected to be
marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation, but some slow
development is possible while the system moves across the Gulf of
Mexico through the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AlphaToOmega]

This is still at 30%. What could the NHC be using to justify those percentages? Global models certainly indicate a high chance of formation.

[wxman57]

This is still at 30%. What could the NHC be using to justify those percentages? Global models certainly indicate a high chance of formation.

I was thinking global models suggest a lower percentage. Only the GFS indicates very weak development near the FL Panhandle around Thursday. Nothing in the ICON, EC, or Canadian.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level disturbance. Locally heavy rains are likely to continue
today over that area. The system is forecast to move slowly
northward or northeastward over the central and then northeastern
Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, when upper-level winds are
only expected to be marginally conducive for tropical cyclone
formation. The disturbance is then expected to cross the
southeastern United States beginning midweek, and some development
is possible once it emerges over the Atlantic waters by late this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

[IcyTundra]

Models have really backed off of developing 91L not expecting much from it, but it could become a TD or a weak TS just off the coast of Florida or Alabama. I'm more interested in that potential W Carribean storm next week that the GFS is insisting on developing and taking it into the western gulf. The GFS very well may be out for lunch but support from the GEFS has been increasing in recent runs so maybe the GFS is onto something.

[AlphaToOmega]

The ensembles show development off the east coast due to Invest 91L.

[drezee]

There will be a moisture surge for sure. Will it spin up right before the coast..

[underthwx]

The ensembles show development off the east coast due to Invest 91L.

Do you mean like a cut off low or something like that?...

[Iceresistance]

The ensembles show development off the east coast due to Invest 91L.

Do you mean like a cut off low or something like that?...

No, it's the pre-existing circulation of 91L from the GoM . . . I've tracked it with the models

[underthwx]

The ensembles show development off the east coast due to Invest 91L.

Do you mean like a cut off low or something like that?...

No, it's the pre-existing circulation of 91L from the GoM . . . I've tracked it with the models

Roger that.....thx...

[Sanibel]

TOO WEAK...

[gulf701]

I know Gulf County, Florida is wet and any tropical activity has the potential to generate flooding problems. I suspect other Panhandle counties are also wet. If it were to tract into the Panhandle, hopefully it will be low moisture system.

[tropicwatch]

I know Gulf County, Florida is wet and any tropical activity has the potential to generate flooding problems. I suspect other Panhandle counties are also wet. If it were to tract into the Panhandle, hopefully it will be low moisture system.

53.15 inches of rain at my house in Panama City so far this year. 91L is definitely not welcome.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles
east of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an
upper-level disturbance located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Locally heavy rains are likely to continue through tonight over
that area. The system is forecast to move slowly northward or
northeastward over the central and then northeastern Gulf of Mexico
over the next few days. Although upper-level winds are currently
unfavorable for development to occur, they are expected to become
marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday.
The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United
States beginning midweek, and some development will be possible
once it emerges over the Atlantic waters by late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[AlphaToOmega]

I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.

[toad strangler]

I know Gulf County, Florida is wet and any tropical activity has the potential to generate flooding problems. I suspect other Panhandle counties are also wet. If it were to tract into the Panhandle, hopefully it will be low moisture system.

53.15 inches of rain at my house in Panama City so far this year. 91L is definitely not welcome.

You don't have a say in the matter

[StAuggy]

I am surprised the NHC has not mentioned the possibility of this reforming over the Gulf Stream.

That would certainly be a big kick in the pants. Anyone have any analogs for a messy system crossing Florida w to e and getting blocked north into the mid-atlantic or New England? Not saying there is support for anything of the sort now but any more tropical rain up north would be bad in the short term

[Stormcenter]

ICON shows more organization but only moves 91L to the central GOM and doesn't do much with it.