2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3101 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 7:28 am

So this is something I only very recently thought of, but what if activity this year will not be hyper-focused in September (like a burst of storms where we have more than 3 active at once) but rather spread out more (a slow-burn, in other words)? We saw something like this in active seasons like 2005 and 1995; in fact, what’s interesting about 1995 is that it had a rather active August but a September that was less active, and this year August has been rather active. Imho, we could see a season where September does not seem to be as active given the lack of multiple simultaneously existing powerful storms, but the activity we see is more sustained and lasts well into October. Just a thought.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3102 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:20 am

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1434857341715890183




Also, here's some decent evidence imho that we should not be calling off September anytime soon.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3103 Postby Teban54 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:26 am

Have people forgotten how bad the models are and how often they miss genesis, even just last season and this season? Models were still showing nada on ~August 8 this year and then we had Fred, Grace and Henri within a few days.

It seems to me that all these calls for an inactive peak season are solely based on model runs, not accounting for other factors that would support activity.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3104 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:36 am

Teban54 wrote:Have people forgotten how bad the models are and how often they miss genesis, even just last season and this season? Models were still showing nada on ~August 8 this year and then we had Fred, Grace and Henri within a few days.

It seems to me that all these calls for an inactive peak season are solely based on model runs, not accounting for other factors that would support activity.


Well said, Teban54. I just think at this point there are individuals who are putting a bit too much emphasis on now-casting and model runs that display little to no activity in September; however, the same model runs are not enthusiastic about the WPAC and EPAC too, and unless we see some completely new and intriguing global pattern here never thought of ever before in recent times, I just find it very hard to believe that all three basins, let alone the EPAC AND the Atlantic, will show little signs of activity in this month.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3105 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:32 am

Teban54 wrote:Have people forgotten how bad the models are and how often they miss genesis, even just last season and this season? Models were still showing nada on ~August 8 this year and then we had Fred, Grace and Henri within a few days.

It seems to me that all these calls for an inactive peak season are solely based on model runs, not accounting for other factors that would support activity.


The ensembles are starting to pick up activity in the next few days. Everything is now pointing to an active September.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3106 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 06, 2021 9:39 am

I was expecting a lull here because of the MJO phase. This season will likely ramp up again towards the middle of September through early October.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3107 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 11:00 am

This is what we should expect for October. I do not exactly know what this means in terms of activity, but I do think it would mean above-average activity during the month of October. Whether that means a few strong storms like last year or lots of storms like 2005, I have not figured that out
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3108 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:07 pm

Honest question. Why are we currently acting like there are 0 storms out there? There is literally a long-tracker moving across the basin producing tons of ACE, and after it dissipates, I almost guarantee that there will be more storms.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3109 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:10 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Honest question. Why are we currently acting like there are 0 storms out there? There is literally a long-tracker moving across the basin producing tons of ACE, and after it dissipates, I almost guarantee that there will be more storms.



Honest answer: Most don't care much about sub tropical mid Atlantic re-curvers. Just how it is. Although if I was in Bermuda I'd be watching real close. :eek:
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3110 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:16 pm

I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3111 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:28 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts about complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course

Lol. I think this should be posted in Bold font :notworthy: . In any case I expect nothing much until Larry leaves the scene and activity should resume around mid-september around the 15-18th
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3112 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:34 pm

Stormybajan wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts about complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course

Lol. I think this should be posted in Bold font :notworthy: . In any case I expect nothing much until Larry leaves the scene and activity should resume around mid-september around the 15-18th

I think that wave coming off Africa around 5 days or so from now will need to be watched, as well as a few behind it but we'll see
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3113 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:45 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts about complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course


After the last few years, October frightens me more than September anyways.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3114 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:53 pm

Development over the East Pacific is likely to occur very soon. Afterwards, the West Atlantic should be ready for development because CCKWs move eastward.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3115 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:59 pm

Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course

Agreed. Aside from maybe Michael Ventrice, most people here don't expect September to be "inactive." I think this month will end up with around 4-5 storms total when all is said and done - it's just it seems unlikely 2021 will match or come close to 2020's record-breaking 10 storms in September. There's also more to how active September is than just named storm count. September 2004 and 2017 only had 4 storms each and both had extremely high ACE totals. Despite having 10 named storms, ACE was only slightly above average last year in September. Larry is likely to produce around 35-40 ACE by itself in September, and I do think we'll see some more activity later this month that could push the ACE total higher.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3116 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:14 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:I don't really see many posts saying September will be inactive, people are just posting that September may be slightly less active than August was, in terms of named storms, which is a valid point and one that I agree with. We all know that less NS doesn't necessarily mean a less intense month, but this is the indicators thread and it does appear, at least for now, that September won't be a complete storm fest, but most of us here would probably agree it will still be active.

Most of this thread recently has just been posts about complaining about people saying that less named storms are possible this month, rather than actual posts saying that this month will be less active.

Just IMO of course


After the last few years, October frightens me more than September anyways.


I mean you have a valid point; recent years such as 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2020 featured their strongest storm achieve its maximum strength in October or beyond. I seriously think the peak season of September 10 may not be very reflective of what has transpired recently; September 20 is perhaps a better approximate date of peak season nowadays imho
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3117 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:50 pm

SAL.. Honest question (from a novice) , is this unusual for this time of year?

Image

Next Thursday (9/9/21):...

Image

1 week from now (9/14/21):...
Image


I've never paid much too attention to SAL, but for the past week,we've been experiencing <sneeze> some dusty days...
Last edited by Spacecoast on Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3118 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:52 pm

toad strangler wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Honest question. Why are we currently acting like there are 0 storms out there? There is literally a long-tracker moving across the basin producing tons of ACE, and after it dissipates, I almost guarantee that there will be more storms.



Honest answer: Most don't care much about sub tropical mid Atlantic re-curvers. Just how it is. Although if I was in Bermuda I'd be watching real close. :eek:

Man, this is a lot more peaceful than the threats we got during this time of year in 2017-2019.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3119 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:55 pm

Fun but very important fact: we are only about 6 ACE units behind where the WPAC currently is. Larry is not finished yet, and by the end I do think we will be very close or perhaps even slightly surpass the WPAC's current ACE count of 69.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

#3120 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:33 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Fun but very important fact: we are only about 6 ACE units behind where the WPAC currently is. Larry is not finished yet, and by the end I do think we will be very close or perhaps even slightly surpass the WPAC's current ACE count of 69.

19W looks like it's gonna get pretty strong over there though. And Conson might make a run for typhoon status so the WPAC should stay ahead.
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