ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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grapealcoholic
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#641 Postby grapealcoholic » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:51 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:NHC sure does do a fantastic job of estimating TC intensity without recon most of the time.

In fairness, ADT is dead on as well. Satellite estimates have come a long way
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#642 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:52 pm

The plane must be having extrapolation issues. Score one for Dvorak though - they nailed the intensity.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#643 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The plane must be having extrapolation issues. Score one for Dvorak though - they nailed the intensity.



And the NHC as well! The Eye drop was spot on with the NHC's pressure estimates!
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#644 Postby Visioen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:02 pm

Unfortunately this can be used as an argument to reduce recon flights
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#645 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:03 pm

Just keep in mind that mid latitude systems with large and stable eyes are always the easiest to extrapolate. It’s the volatile ones in the deep tropics which Dvorak could have a hard time.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#646 Postby ThetaE » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:03 pm

One thing that totally surprised me with this recon pass: signs of a double eyewall structure lurking. There's a double wind maxima in the south quad, and the north quad had less distinct double wind maxima but two distinct rain rate maxima. Larry sure seems to love ERCs.

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#647 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:03 pm

The NHC are very good at their jobs. Especially with storms during peak season.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#648 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:10 pm

Visioen wrote:Unfortunately this can be used as an argument to reduce recon flights

The necessity of recon deployment depends on the potential land impact of the system and has nothing to do with how well satellite estimates can do without recon...
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#649 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:11 pm

woah... the A word has been used.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#650 Postby Woofde » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:17 pm

Looking at the Visible floater imagery it looks like Larry may be starting to develop a pinwheel eye. Larry is stunning to look at.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#651 Postby Visioen » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:24 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Visioen wrote:Unfortunately this can be used as an argument to reduce recon flights

The necessity of recon deployment depends on the potential land impact of the system and has nothing to do with how well satellite estimates can do without recon...

If satellite estimates were as reliable then no money would be put into recon flights, it has everything to do with it :)
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#652 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:34 pm

Woofde wrote:Looking at the Visible floater imagery it looks like Larry may be starting to develop a pinwheel eye. Larry is stunning to look at.



I think we may have one . . .

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#653 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:37 pm

It's like Isabel's brother. What an amazing looking storm.

Image
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#654 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:43 pm

Over 100 knots of wind in that eyewall, so glad this labor day hurricane isn't going to make landfall.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#655 Postby TorSkk » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:45 pm

Absolutely amazing that NHC was able to estimate the pressure spot-on in such a storm
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#656 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:47 pm

Yes Levi. :D

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1434932590083858435


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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#657 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:49 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:It's like Isabel's brother. What an amazing looking storm.

https://i.imgur.com/nZHIIBc.jpg

Absolutely Beautiful Hurricane :crazyeyes: man Larry is every weather enthusiast dream. Large, Out To Sea / Minimal impact (Depending if theres a sudden west turn which may bring Bermuda into play) , annular with a big fat doughnut eye! Credit to all the models which predicted this in advance, such a shame though annular hurricanes like Larry and Isabel are so rare in the Atlantic basin.
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#658 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:56 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1434952296379551748


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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#659 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:59 pm

Image

Image

No apparent outer eyewall on the recent AMSR pass yet
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Re: ATL: LARRY - Hurricane - Discussion Update = Is Annular

#660 Postby AlphaToOmega » Mon Sep 06, 2021 1:59 pm

Larry is taking a while to strengthen.
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