ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Getting very close to a Cat 4 now. NW quad should be interesting

[cycloneye]

Another replacement cycle.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1434956109761204226

[AlphaToOmega]

Recon found 111 knot-winds, which translates to 100 knots.

[toad strangler]

Gorgeous and on the unique side hurricane

[InfernoFlameCat]

One thing that totally surprised me with this recon pass: signs of a double eyewall structure lurking. There's a double wind maxima in the south quad, and the north quad had less distinct double wind maxima but two distinct rain rate maxima. Larry sure seems to love ERCs.

https://i.imgur.com/R2UH0o8.png

I saw that a new outer convective ring was appearing on the west side of the storm. Recon confirmed a ERC.

[aspen]

How many more EWRCs is Larry going to go through? I don’t think it’s had more than 24 hours without an outer eyewall forming.

A drop in the NW eyewall found 108 kt surface winds.

[ElectricStorm]

Normally when storms go OTS I root against ERC's so they can get strong.

This right here is an exception. Hopefully it ends up with the record largest eye in the Atlantic

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Fully zoomed out to put Larry's size in perspective.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye is drying out. Don't think an ERC is imminent

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye is drying out. Don't think an ERC is imminent

Eye is massive so a typical response to a possible EWRC probably does not apply. Such a big eye may remain dry throughout the whole process of the EWRC.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye is drying out. Don't think an ERC is imminent

Eye is massive so a typical response to a possible EWRC probably does not apply. Such a big eye may remain dry throughout the whole process of the EWRC.

No double wind maximum in the SE quad

[ThetaE]

Unfortunately this can be used as an argument to reduce recon flights

The necessity of recon deployment depends on the potential land impact of the system and has nothing to do with how well satellite estimates can do without recon...

If satellite estimates were as reliable then no money would be put into recon flights, it has everything to do with it

I understand the concern, this isn't really the case. The NOAA planes, for instance, are funded more by research projects than operational necessity. The NOAA planes are staffed by scientists from the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) as part of their "Hurricane Field Project," which consists of a vast number of research objectives:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/2021-hurricane-field-program/

There's a lot of projects listed on that website that will help improve our forecasting/understanding of TCs beyond where it already is. I'm not as familiar with how the AF funds their flights, though.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Larry's probably one of the most interesting hurricanes i've seen in a while

[Kingarabian]

Dvorak did a good job with Larry because it's super easy as it fit within the algorithm/technique criteria well. Don't forget how bad Dvorak was for storms like Dorian, and even recently for storms like Felicia and Linda in the EPAC. Let's not forget what WPAC followers have to deal with since they virtually have no recon. But yeah in simple terms, Recon cannot be replaced.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's absolutely amazing how similar this is to Isabel. Sameish area, same time of year...annular...pinwheel eye...similar strength too

[sikkar]

[aspen]

Just wow.

Seems like the HWRF was right about good UL conditions for today. Outflow is the best it's ever been.

[aspen]

Recon found 115 kt FL winds (SFMR is only 91 kt) in the NE quadrant, as well as an extrapolated pressure 3-4mb lower than both prior passes. I’m interested to see if the eye drop also finds a lower pressure.

[Teban54]

115 kt FL and 91kt SFMR in the NE quad. Supports borderline major, though the wind field is incredibly large with multiple Cat 3 FL wind readings in all quadrants.

Edit: Interestingly, NHC upped the intensity to 110 kt for the 5pm advisory:

Peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
110 kt with SFMR winds of 101 kt were measured in the northwestern
eyewall a couple of hours ago, supporting an intensity of about 100
kt in that portion of the cyclone. During that pass through the
hurricane, the aircraft tail Doppler radar measured winds of 121 kt
at a height of 3 km in the northeastern eyewall, which equate to
about 109 kt at the surface. Therefore, the initial intensity has
been adjusted up to 110 kt for this advisory.

[supercane4867]

It's absolutely amazing how similar this is to Isabel. Sameish area, same time of year...annular...pinwheel eye...similar strength too

Not quite strong as Isabel and not as symmetric either. We are talking about a CAT3 vs CAT5 despite both being annular