2021 WPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Possible CPAC->WPAC crossover in a few days.

[mrbagyo]

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/o82mqzI.gif

https://i.imgur.com/nRG60T4.gif

Hone is smiling after nearly 2 years since the last CPAC storm formed

[Hayabusa]

TSR August update reduces ACE prediction to ~230, its Aug 2020 ACE prediction was ~157, actual was 148.5 according to the 2020 global ACE stats thread.

TSR reduces its July outlook and predicts the Northwest Pacific typhoon season in 2021 will
likely witness an ACE index, intense typhoon numbers and typhoon numbers in the
lower tercile historically.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2021.pdf

[aspen]

On CSU’s ACE page, Surigae was dropped to 155kt/900mb, but the best track on the RAMMB/CIRA page remains at 165kt

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... estpacific

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... r=wp022021

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1427015923903434761

[Kingarabian]

[mrbagyo]

You know WPAC basin is in deep slumber when you see this thread go to the PAGE 2 of Talkin Tropics in the month of September.



Anyway, there's a weak system trying to pump some life to this slumbering basin.
JTWC needs to tag this one up as JMA is now expecting a TD out of it within the next 48 hrs.
It has support from most guidance but will probably be just a weak fish storm.

[mrbagyo]

The area of convection SE of Guam needs close monitoring


PS: there's a weak naked circulation near the dateline

[Hayabusa]

The area of convection SE of Guam needs close monitoring
https://i.imgur.com/SswRLnZ.gif

It's already tagged as 94W more than 8 hours ago.

[aspen]

Cempaka from earlier this summer is an example of why I hate the JMA’s 10-minute wind estimates. People at the landfall point would be expecting a tropical storm, but in reality, it’s an 80 kt rapidly intensifying typhoon. Calling that a “55 kt Severe Tropical Storm” was a mistake. An even worse example was Category 2 “Severe Tropical Storm” Usagi a few years ago.

[Teban54]

Cempaka from earlier this summer is an example of why I hate the JMA’s 10-minute wind estimates. People at the landfall point would be expecting a tropical storm, but in reality, it’s an 80 kt rapidly intensifying typhoon. Calling that a “55 kt Severe Tropical Storm” was a mistake. An even worse example was Category 2 “Severe Tropical Storm” Usagi a few years ago.

At least China Meteorological Administration did call Cempaka a typhoon upon landfall in their own warnings.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the rest of September could be possibly active based on this MJO.

[Hayabusa]

Latest and previous runs of Euro seem to be showing a low forming over the Philippine Sea in week 2, CMC also shows it. Nada from the GFS.

[dexterlabio]

Latest and previous runs of Euro seem to be showing a low forming over the Philippine Sea in week 2, CMC also shows it. Nada from the GFS.

Gfs ensembles however show this, as well as a pretty active 2nd and 3rd week of september

[mrbagyo]

[dexterlabio]

^I just hope this won't be another case of model "nowcasting" like what happened with Conson, and even Chanthu during its formative stages...if I'm not mistaken Chanthu was initially shown to become a disorganized mess.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a powerful typhoon that starts developing around 3-4 days from now. Peaks at 935mb and eventually passes to the east of Japan. We'll probably see an invest soon for this potential area.

[Hayabusa]

0z GFS has a powerful typhoon that starts developing around 3-4 days from now. Peaks at 935mb and eventually passes to the east of Japan. We'll probably see an invest soon for this potential area.

2 days ago EC ensembles started to show it too but the GFS is flip flopping on genesis, like it was showing pre-97W/98W becoming a TS.

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS is showing multiple systems in the WPAC, especially in October