WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Last edited by zzh on Tue Sep 07, 2021 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Yellow Evan
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
I can't see it, what is it?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
ADT is really struggling with this and has only gone up to 75-80 kt. In reality, Chanthu is likely around 115-125 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
This is probably gonna challenge Surigae for the strongest storm of the year
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Euro shows a WSW dip but at the same time (or all global models) having trouble resolving the intensity not sure how should I take these track forecast by the models reliably
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
TPPN11 PGTW 071808
A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 16.25N
D. 133.56E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D4.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT. BROKE
ALL CONSTRAINTS DUE TO SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA
A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 16.25N
D. 133.56E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D4.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT. BROKE
ALL CONSTRAINTS DUE TO SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA
Wow, an actually great Dvorak fix for once.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Chanthu is similar to Goni in 2020 because of the wobbling Pinhole Eye & Small CDO . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
zzh wrote:19W CHANTHU 210907 1800 16.2N 133.5E WPAC 125 939
Up to 125kt
That's an increase of 80 knots in 24 hours, rapid intensification is 30 knots minimum increase in 24 hours.
19W CHANTHU 210907 1800 16.2N 133.5E WPAC 125 939
19W CHANTHU 210907 1200 16.3N 134.6E WPAC 95 966
19W CHANTHU 210907 0600 16.1N 135.7E WPAC 70 982
19W CHANTHU 210907 0000 15.6N 136.6E WPAC 50 995
19W CHANTHU 210906 1800 15.2N 137.3E WPAC 45 997
19W CHANTHU 210907 1200 16.3N 134.6E WPAC 95 966
19W CHANTHU 210907 0600 16.1N 135.7E WPAC 70 982
19W CHANTHU 210907 0000 15.6N 136.6E WPAC 50 995
19W CHANTHU 210906 1800 15.2N 137.3E WPAC 45 997
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
WTPQ21 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 16.3N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 16.0N 130.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 091800UTC 17.6N 126.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 101800UTC 20.7N 122.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2114 CHANTHU (2114)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 16.3N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 16.0N 130.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 091800UTC 17.6N 126.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 101800UTC 20.7N 122.5E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Anyone has a good site for floaters/satellite loops for WPac storms? I usually use Tropical Tidbits for Atlantic/EPac but obviously they don't have WPac coverage.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Teban54 wrote:Anyone has a good site for floaters/satellite loops for WPac storms? I usually use Tropical Tidbits for Atlantic/EPac but obviously they don't have WPac coverage.
https://www.easterlywave.com/typhoon/satellite/target/
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Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9279
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Teban54 wrote:Anyone has a good site for floaters/satellite loops for WPac storms? I usually use Tropical Tidbits for Atlantic/EPac but obviously they don't have WPac coverage.
Weathernerds has Global Coverage
Chantau: https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=Himawari&initsattype=wv&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=764&initrange=20.500:-233.500:12.000:-219.500&initloop=True&initnframes=40&initlightning16=Off&initlightning17=On&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
TXPQ29 KNES 071848
TCSWNP
A. 19W (CHANTHU)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 16.3N
D. 133.6E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE TEMP, WHITE RING TEMP, AND IS EMBEDDED
IN WHITE RESULTING IN AN EYE PATTERN DT OF 6.5. THE 6 HR AVG RESULTS
TO A 6.0. ADDITIONALLY, WITHIN THE LAST HR SYSTEM'S EYE HAS WARMED FROM
DG TO OW INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS DUE TO
THE 6 HR AVERAGE AND LIMITING T-NO. CHANGE OF 1.0 IN PREVIOUS 6 HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...PATEL
TCSWNP
A. 19W (CHANTHU)
B. 07/1730Z
C. 16.3N
D. 133.6E
E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE TEMP, WHITE RING TEMP, AND IS EMBEDDED
IN WHITE RESULTING IN AN EYE PATTERN DT OF 6.5. THE 6 HR AVG RESULTS
TO A 6.0. ADDITIONALLY, WITHIN THE LAST HR SYSTEM'S EYE HAS WARMED FROM
DG TO OW INDICATING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE 24 HR TREND IS DEVELOPING
RAPIDLY. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS DUE TO
THE 6 HR AVERAGE AND LIMITING T-NO. CHANGE OF 1.0 IN PREVIOUS 6 HRS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...PATEL
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16058
- Age: 26
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
Starting to look annular IMO. Minimal banding and a large symmetrical CDO is being established.
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Re: WPAC: CHANTHU - Typhoon
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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